From Argentina's takeoff to Mexico's slowdown: Economic growth forecasts for Latin America

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) projects that the region’s gross domestic product will grow by 2.2% in 2025, with Argentina leading the way. The South American nation is expected to grow its GDP by 5% in 2025, with the economic momentum continuing into 2026 with a projected 4% increase.

"After two years of contraction, it presents an increase in the growth rate of 6.1% compared to the same period in 2024 thanks to the recovery of its economic activity as a result of its stabilization plan," writes the UN agency alluding to President Javier Milei's economic plan. "They highlight the growth in the mining, industry, commerce and financial intermediation sectors."

Panama and Paraguay are expected to see growth above 4% in 2025, with projections of 4.2% and 4.0% respectively. The Panamanian government celebrated the figures, stating they reaffirm the country’s “leading role” in the “regional economic recovery,” despite the “structural and conjunctural challenges that persist.”

At the lower end of Latin America’s growth projections are Haiti, with a 2.3% decline; Cuba, with a 1.5% contraction; and Mexico, expected to grow by only 0.3%. According to ECLAC, Mexico will also experience a weak 2026, ranking among the four countries with the slowest growth next year, alongside Bolivia, Cuba, and Haiti.

The region’s largest economy, Brazil, is projected to see its GDP grow by 2.3% in 2025—a slight improvement over the 2% forecasted last month. However, this growth rate remains below the 3.4% recorded in 2024. Additionally, the international organization estimates that Brazil’s growth will slow to 2.0% in 2026.

It is worth noting that these projections were made before Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs took effect. However, the estimates did take into account some of the negotiated exceptions.

At the regional level, the United Nations agency warned of “the weakness of external demand, restrictive financial conditions, and the fragility derived from internal factors.” They also noted that the region’s average expansion reflects a persistent "low growth path."

According to the same report, Latin American countries experienced low economic growth between 2016 and 2025, with an average expansion rate of 1.2%—lower than that recorded in the 1980s, which is often referred to as the region’s “lost decade.” Growth is expected to improve to 2.3% in 2026.

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