With Kemp out of the race, Republicans fear Marjorie Taylor Greene could cost them the Senate in Georgia

With Brian Kemp out of the race for theSenate in Georgia.one of the most repeated names to grab the Republican nomination is that of Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG). Even before the popular governor ruled himself out as a candidate for 2026, the congresswoman made no secret of her intentions to run against Democrat Jon Ossoff.

Last May 4, Greene sent a suggestive email to supporters and donors, hinting that he is seriously considering running.

"The Senate is broken. The cowards are mounting And Jon Ossoff is terrified I might step in. He's fundraising off my name because he knows he can't win on his own. He's a traitor to our country, to our people, and to our daughters - and I'm not afraid to say it. This would be the biggest fight of my life. And I need to know right now: Would I have your support?" the post reads.

With the memory of 2022 still fresh and the emblematic case of Roy Moore in 2018, who cost the Republican Party a Senate seat in Alabama, some Republicans fear MTG could do the same in 2026.

The danger of MTG as a candidate: "She's unlikely to win a general election"

Following the announcement of Kemp, Jay Morgan, former executive director of the Georgia Republican Party, told Politically Georgia that Ossoff had become "the luckiest politician in America." "And now he wants MTG to run and make sure he gets even luckier," he added.

Along the same lines was Republican consultant Mark Rountree, who was skeptical about Greene's chances against a more diverse electorate than his congressional seat: "It’s possible that Greene could win a Republican primary. But it’s unlikely she could win a general election, and conservatives would once again have blown an opportunity to defeat Democrats in Georgia."

Similar is the analysis by some Republican senators. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-SD) was asked about a possible run by the congresswoman and was less than enthusiastic.

"That is a swing state that’s pretty independent-minded. If I was to put my political science hat on and look at all the criteria, she wouldn’t be high on my list of recruits," he replied. At the same time, he insisted that "eligibility is one of the most important criteria when recruiting a candidate."

Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is expected to face a tough re-election next year, also expressed doubts about Greene's electoral strengths in a key state like Georgia. "I think she’d be a solid primary contender, but the state’s a lot like North Carolina. It could be a challenge at the statewide level," he added.

For John Cornyn (R-TX), the safest thing for the GOP to do would be to field a candidate capable of prevailing in a general. "I want one that can win. I don’t know whether she qualifies or not," he opined about Greene.

Others, however, argued that the performance of the economy will be a deciding factor in the election, beyond the strength of the candidate. "I don’t think there’s going to be a problem — it depends on the economy, obviously. It depends on how President Trump does in the next 12 months," Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) noted in dialogue with Politico.

Between moderation and closeness to the base: the dilemma for Senate candidates in key states

While the Senate electoral map in 2026 seemed to be favorable (or at least not harmful) for Republicans, the leadership recently received two pieces of news that made the outlook a bit more doubtful. The refusal of Chris Sununuand Brian Kemp to be candidates complicated matters for the upper chamber's Republican leadership, given that New Hampshire and Georgia are two of the GOP's three most certain opportunities to win seats. However, Kemp's case set off even more alarm bells in the Peach State.

With the experience still fresh from the 2022 midterm elections, in which Republicans fielded Senate candidates who swept the primaries but too controversial for the generals in key states, the strategy in 2024 was the exact opposite.

Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), who chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) during the last election cycle, told VOZ that he based his candidate recruitment strategy on the premise that they could win a general election.

"Candidates who had broader appeal among Americans. Because if you can win a primary and not a general ... you can't win. That's how it works," the Montana senator explained at the time. With this strategy they managed to flip four Democratic seats, thus regaining the majority after four years.

Tim Scott (R-SC), Daines' successor in the NRSC, has not yet expressed himself on the race. It is also unclear whether he will seek to intercede in the primary as Daines did or opt for a less incisive style, like Rick Scott (R-FL) in 2022.

What do the polls say?

Although the election is still a long way off, polls so far agree that Greene would not be the strongest candidate the Republicans could field.

According to a poll conducted by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, only Kemp was capable of beating Ossoff, with the rest of the Republicans placing behind the Democratic senator. In the same poll in which Kemp defeated Ossoff by three percentage points, the Democrat beat Greene by 17 points.

Another poll, this time conducted by Tyson Group, found Kemp winning by 7 points, but Greene losing by 12.

If not Greene, who?

In addition to Greene, Mike Collins, Brad Raffensberger, Rich McCormick, John King, Tyler Harper and Buddy Carter showed some interest in the election.