Cuba: Where does a country go when it has nowhere left to go?

The current energy and economic crisis in Cuba cannot be understood solely as the result of sanctions or international conjunctures. It is also the consequence of a centralized political and economic model that, for more than six decades, has maintained absolute control of power while the majority of the population faces chronic shortages, low wages and limited freedoms.

The system established after the revolution of 1959 promised equality and prosperity, but today the island exhibits one of the most fragile economies in the hemisphere. Lack of fuel, constant blackouts and the fall of key sectors such as tourism and industry reflect not only external pressures, but also structural weaknesses accumulated over decades of inefficient state planning.

The regime now headed by Miguel Díaz-Canel has insisted on attributing the crisis mainly to the U.S. embargo. However, even historic allies such as Venezuela have reduced their capacity to support it, exposing the Cuban model's critical dependence on external subsidies.

A model that concentrates resources in the State, not in its citizens

Unlike open economies, in Cuba, the state controls the strategic sectors: energy, exports, tourism, telecommunications and medical services. This means that foreign currency income does not flow freely to the population, but is administered by the government apparatus.

One of the clearest examples is the medical services export program. Although it generates billions of dollars annually, human rights organizations have questioned that the state retains most of the salaries paid by the receiving countries, while the professionals receive only a fraction.

Energy crisis and daily deterioration

The blackouts that affect much of the country are today the most visible symbol of the economic collapse. Without constant electricity, businesses, hospitals and schools are paralyzed. Families must reorganize their daily lives around power outages that can last hours or even days.

This situation is not new, but it has been aggravated by a lack of investment, obsolescence of infrastructure and a shortage of foreign currency to import fuel. The fall of Venezuelan support eliminated one of the pillars that artificially sustained the energy system. The result: darkness.

Meanwhile, tourism, one of the main sources of income, is operating well below capacity, affected by the internal crisis, lack of supplies and economic uncertainty.

The deep fuel shortage in Cuba has led several international airlines to suspend operations to the island, plunging the tourism sector into an unprecedented crisis. Canadian airlines such as Air Canada, Air Transat and WestJet have halted flights due to the impossibility of fueling their aircraft, while Russian companies such as Rossiya and Nordwind announced the evacuation of tourists and the cancellation of routes due to similar difficulties.

Even LATAM Peru suspended flights to Havana as of Feb. 14, maintaining only limited operations for the repatriation of passengers until March 7.

The air crisis reflects the increasing economic isolation of the island, which has run out of Venezuelan oil supplies following the arrest of dictator Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces and under the threat of tariffs by Washington on any country that sells fuel to the Caribbean nation.

This context has caused Cuban airports to lack commercial fuel since early February and the International Civil Aviation Organization expects the situation to continue until at least March 11.

As a result, Canada, the top international visitor market, and Russia, the second, have drastically reduced tourist arrivals, hitting a sector that generated $917 million in 2025, far short of the $1.2 billion target.

Despite the attempts by the Cuban Tourism Office to ensure that "lodging and tourist services remain fully operational," evidence indicates that energy and financial isolation threatens the very viability of the tourism industry, aggravating the economic crisis.

Repression and political control in the midst of the crisis

The economic crisis is developing in parallel with a strong political control. The regime does not allow multiparty elections or organized legal opposition. Protests, such as those recorded in July 2021, were met with mass arrests, judicial convictions and intensified surveillance.

International organizations have documented arrests of dissidents, independent journalists and citizens expressing criticism of the government. The control over the media limits access to independent information within the country.

This political context reduces the margin for public debate or the implementation of profound reforms driven by civil society.

External dependence and structural vulnerability

For decades, Cuba has depended on the support of foreign allies to sustain its economy: first the Soviet Union, then Venezuela. That dependence has exposed the country to severe crises every time that support disappears or weakens.

The recent diplomatic pressure from Washington, during the administration of Donald Trump, and the continuity of sanctions have aggravated the economic difficulties, but have also highlighted the fragility of a model that has failed to generate self-sustainable growth.

The result: A population trapped between economic crisis and political control

For millions of Cubans, the consequence is a reality marked by scarcity, emigration and uncertainty. Leaving the country has become the main escape route for those seeking better opportunities and freedoms.

The current crisis is not only energy or financial. It is the reflection of a system that has prioritized the survival of the political apparatus over individual prosperity and sustainable economic development.

While the government tries to maintain control in the midst of scarcity, the underlying challenge remains the same that has marked the island for more than 60 years: the inability of its political and economic model to offer well-being and freedom to its population.