Canadians go to the polls in an election marked by Trump, the tariff war, and a lot of confusion in the polls

Canadians came out en masse to the polls Monday to vote in a historic federal election, clearly marked by unexpected twists and turns and confusion at the polls, the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies from Washington, and a completely reconfigured political landscape following the departure of questionable former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from the Liberal leadership.

Just a few months ago, the Conservative Party, under the leadership of opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, dominated the national polls at will with a solid double-digit lead. The feeling was that it was a matter of time before Poilievre became the new Canadian prime minister, breaking with the Liberal Party's hegemony over the past decade.

The growth of the Conservative Party, according to analysts, was due to the wear and tear accumulated after a decade of inefficient Liberal governments, which made the cost of living more expensive and which also began to cut freedoms to multiple sectors of Canadian civil society, provoking massive protests and many questions to Trudeau himself, whose image was weakening more and more.

However, everything changed dramatically in January, when Trudeau resigned and economist Mark Carney took over as interim prime minister and new leader of the Liberal Party.

Carney's meteoric rise coincided, fortunately for the Liberals, with rising tensions between Washington and Ottawa. Trump's tariff policy, his threats to "annex" Canada as the "51st state," and his provocative rhetoric on immigration and security unleashed, against all odds, a wave of nationalism in Canada that completely changed the electoral dynamics, unexpectedly hurting Conservative candidate Poilievre.

Incredibly, from lagging behind, the Liberals went on to lead the polls, even by more than 20 points in some polls, seeming to put Carney on track for an easy win. Suddenly, however, in recent weeks, the course of history changed again, with the Conservatives recovering and putting themselves in, virtually, a technical tie with the Liberals. According to The Telegraph, polls show Carney barely two points ahead of Poilievre, who at the beginning of the month was trailing his opponent by six points, suggesting a photo finish.

Canadian leaders are staking their political future.

In this volatile context, Canadians must choose between three main figures to lead the country: Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is presented as the most official option and the guarantor of stability and the defense of national sovereignty in the face of external pressures from Washington, today commanded by President Trump. Pierre Poilievre, the charismatic, populist, and combative conservative leader, seeks, instead, to capitalize on domestic economic malaise, although his "Trump-style" rhetorical closeness has generated doubts among moderate sectors, according to the Wall Street Journal. For his part, Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), the most progressive option, faces a complicated campaign in which not only the future of the party is at stake, but also his own leadership after mediocre results in the last two elections.

As Alex Boutilier points out in his article published by Global News, "Election 2025: Stakes are high for all three major party leaders," the political future of the three leaders is directly tied to the results of this Election Day.

Carney, for example, could cement himself as the Liberals' savior or become the shortest-term prime minister in modern Canadian history. Poilievre, who has strengthened his control over the Conservative Party unlike his predecessors, could be celebrated as the leader who returned the Tories to power; however, there is the risk of falling and facing internal struggles for not dethroning a Liberal government that seemed absolutely vulnerable just a few months ago. Singh, meanwhile, could see his third chance to improve the NDP's parliamentary position and cede leadership in a party that historically does not change leaders so quickly run out.

Boutilier's article also highlights how, despite the tie or closeness in voting intention polls, the Liberals have a very important structural advantage over the Conservatives: their support is better distributed in key provinces such as Ontario and Quebec, very rich in seats, while the Conservative vote tends to be concentrated in the west, making it difficult to translate their votes into seats. Poilievre's great challenge in this election will therefore be to break the Liberal hegemony within his own strongholds.

In short, the 2025 federal elections in Canada are much more than a contest to define the next prime minister. Today, Canadians will have a great historic decision on their hands, with the uncertainty of whether their vote will represent a restoration of the Canadian soul and a leadership up to the task in turbulent times or, failing that, a bad decision that will continue to weigh them down for several years to come.