Divided over Iran: A New Poll of Americans on Whether to Negotiate with Tehran or Push for Regime Change

A new national poll by the Reagan Institute, released Thursday, suggests that Americans are divided on how the United States should handle its relationship with Iran, with nearly identical percentages supporting either a diplomatic agreement with Tehran or a change in the leadership of the Persian nation. According to the poll, 39% of respondents said they favor a negotiated agreement that would allow Iran’s current theocratic regime to remain in power, while verifiable restrictions are imposed on its nuclear and missile programs. Meanwhile, only 36% said they would prefer that the current Iranian regime be replaced by one more aligned with Washington’s interests.

Furthermore, the poll also found that 16% of Americans support a middle-ground solution in which Iran’s current leadership remains in power but is significantly weakened economically and militarily, while another 8% of respondents indicated they were unsure which would be the best option. The survey was conducted between May 26 and June 3 and included 1,555 participants from across the country. The researchers reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The data was collected through a combination of live telephone interviews, online surveys, and responses obtained via text messages linked to web forms.

Among Republican respondents, support for regime change outpaced support for a negotiated solution by a ratio of roughly two to one. Half of the Republicans surveyed said they would prefer to replace the current Iranian government with one more favorable to the United States, while 25% favored a diplomatic agreement that keeps the regime in power in exchange for strict and verifiable limits on its weapons programs.

Meanwhile, 52% of Democratic respondents favored pursuing a diplomatic agreement with the current Iranian government, while 25% supported replacing the regime. Another 14% indicated that they would prefer the government to remain in power, but with significantly reduced military and economic capabilities.