Trump turns his gaze to the south: Latin America becomes his new geopolitical front

The return of Donald Trump to the White House marks the beginning of a new geopolitical competition in the Americas. His strategy seeks to regain U.S. influence in a region that, after two decades of neglect, has been conquered economically and strategically by China from silence.

Today Beijing is South America's main trading partner and an actor with a strong financial and technological presence. In this way it also ensures its geostrategic presence in the region, something that undoubtedly worries Washington.

It is no secret that Trump has placed Latin America back at the center of U.S. foreign policy, with a strategy that mixes security, trade, migration and geopolitics. His main goal: to rebuild leadership in a region he considers vital to U.S. economic and national security interests.

Trump's new doctrine seeks to strengthen the U.S. presence in Canada, Panama, Latin America and even Greenland. His administration is promoting an agenda that combines:

What is the outlook for the U.S. in the region?

Brazil: the jewel in China's crown in South America.

China is Brazil's top trading partner, displacing the U.S. years ago. In 2024, Chinese investment in the country doubled, reaching record levels according to Reuters. Relations between the two governments intensified under leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who seeks to reduce dependence on the dollar and encourage trade in renminbi (China's official currency).

In addition, Chinese companies such as State Grid and China Three Gorges dominate a large part of the Brazilian energy sector, while BYD announced the construction of an electric vehicle mega-factory in Bahia. The link is not only economic, but political: Beijing sees Brazil as its regional strategic partner and an allied voice within the BRICS bloc.

Argentina: energy, lithium and financial dependence.

In Argentina, China has woven a network of key investments. It finances 85% of the Atucha III nuclear project, a plant valued at more than $8.3 billion, and controls important mining concessions in the lithium triangle shared with Bolivia and Chile.

Despite the country's turnaround with President Javier Milei, negotiations with Xi Jinping continued at the G20 in Rio de Janeiro, where both leaders agreed to deepen economic cooperation. In addition, the Argentine Central Bank maintains a currency swap with the People's Bank of China, which allowed it to hold reserves during recent financial crises. In practice, Beijing has become the country's main lender and trading partner.

How has the United States managed to reposition itself in months across the continent?

The Panama Case:.

Last April, and following a visit by the U.S. Secretary of War, at the time Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth to Panama, it was announced a memorandum of understanding on security cooperation signed by the governments of President Donald Trump and Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, advancing details of a document that would guarantee U.S. auxiliary and warships not only free passage through the canal, but also priority passage.

The Panamanian government also confirmed that the U.S. military would increase its presence in the Central American country, and in areas adjacent to the Canal.

At that time the Central American nation pledged in a joint statement to abandon the famed 'Silk Road' and to reduce China's presence in the country.

The Argentine miracle:.

Argentina made official in late October a $20 billion financing line with the United Statesas part of an exchange rate stabilization agreement days before a crucial legislative session for President Javier Milei.

The announcement of a currency swap with President Donald Trump's government comes amid a run against the Argentine peso, and adds to other measures by the U.S. Treasury in support of Milei before the Oct. 26 elections, in which he won with a wide lead.

Trump also promised his ally Milei another 20 billion dollars in public and private funds to face the market turbulences as long as he achieved a good electoral result, something that clearly materialized. The Argentine presidential agenda includes visits to Washington at least every two months, according to the media, which evidences a rapprochement between the countries and the door to possible regional cooperation beyond economic bailouts.

Mexico, the gateway with special attention from Washington: Mexico, the gateway with special attention from Washington:

The United States and Mexico have established a new security cooperation strategy to combat the trafficking of arms, drugs and illicit money. In trade and economics, both countries are working to strengthen their supply chains, technology, infrastructure and employment through high-level dialogues.

Specific agreements on water, borders and immigration control have also been reached that reinforce the strategic nature of the relationship.

From the U.S. perspective, Mexico is key to curb the flow of drugs, weapons and irregular migration into its territory, as well as to secure its productive chains. For Mexico, cooperation with its neighbor opens up opportunities for investment, technology and employment, in addition to strengthening its security against organized crime.

Despite the collaboration, Mexico insists that any agreement respects its sovereignty and autonomy.

U.S. seeks to set up security offices in Ecuador

The United States is exploring the possibility of establishing Department of Homeland Security (DHS) offices in Ecuador, with the aim of strengthening bilateral cooperation in the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking. The DHS Secretary, Kristi Noem, arrived in the South American country this week to evaluate military installations considered strategic, such as the Manta and Salinas bases, on the Pacific coast.

The project depends on the outcome of the referendum on Nov. 16, in which Ecuadorians will decide whether to allow the installation of bases or foreign personnel, something currently prohibited by the Constitution.

Ecuador is going through a serious security crisis, with a more than 600% increase in homicides in the last six years and the presence of some twenty criminal gangs linked to international cartels. Washington considers the country a key point in its regional strategy against drug trafficking, especially due to its strategic location in the South Pacific.

The cooperation is part of a rapprochement between the governments of Daniel Noboa and Donald Trump, which seek to strengthen the military and technological alliance in the face of China's growing influence in Latin America.

If the referendum is approved, the United States could establish for the first time official DHS offices in Ecuadorian territory, aimed at coordinating joint operations in intelligence, border security and the fight against drug trafficking.