UK poll: Labour sinks, Reform UK triumphs

A new survey published Thursday in the UK revealed a significant drop in support for the Labour Party, which took over the government a year ago, and a sharp rise in support for the right-wing Reform UK faction of Nigel Farage.

In fact, according to the poll, conducted by the YouGov institute, if the election were held today, Nigel Farage could become Prime Minister at the head of a coalition with the Conservatives, while Labour would lose more than half of its power.

It should be noted that Reform UK was founded in 2018 by Farage under the label The Brexit Party, and promoted the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. In 2021, after the country left that political community, it changed its name to the current one.

The Labor Party: From victory to decline

Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer won the 2024 elections and Labour managed to come to power after a decade and a half in opposition with strong popular support, winning 411 seats out of 650 in the Parliament. However, the poll revealed a surprising drop in their popular support in just one year, marked by an internal rebellion and the rise of Reform UK.

According to YouGov, if the election were held today, Labour would win just 178 seats, representing a loss of 233. Reform UK, meanwhile, would go from the five it currently holds to 271, while the Conservative Party, which has 121, would win just 46.

The poll indicated that Reform UK has the support of 26% of voters, Labour 23%, the Conservatives 18% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.

However, despite the significant increase in support for Reform UK, Farage's party would not be able to form a Government if the elections were held today, so it would surely try to join the Conservative Party to reach 317 seats, nine less than those needed to form an absolute majority. In any case, in this way it could form a government with external support to the coalition.

Surprisingly, the main support for Reform UK comes from voters disappointed with the Labour Party. YouGov indicated that, according to the poll, it would snatch 194 seats from them, while it would take 69 from the Conservatives.

The main policies promoted by Reform UK

Reform UK promotes policies to restrict immigration, mainly in light of internal tensions caused by the arrival of a large number of immigrants from Islamic countries, and to reduce taxes. Moreover, during the pandemic, this political force expressed its strong opposition to confinements.

Labour's 'rebel'

The decline in Labour's power comes against the backdrop of an internal rebellion against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, led by more than 120 MPs from his own party seeking to block a proposed welfare reform. This reform, which includes cuts of more than 5 billion pounds to the welfare budget, is considered "dangerous" by the rebels, who warn that it will severely affect disabled and sick people, which could result in a humiliating defeat for Starmer in next week's vote.