The House at fever pitch: Democrat Christian Menefee’s victory narrows GOP majority with three special elections before midterms
Conservatives see their 218-213 lead further compromised with the gaps left by Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia; now New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill; and the late Californian Doug LaMalfa remaining to be filled.
Image of the House of Representatives
The situation of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives (218-213) is even more on edge following the victory of Democrat Christian Menefee in the special election to fill the seat of the late Sylvester Turner of Texas. Something that could still even get worse since there are still three seats up for grabs before the November midterms.
While a Democratic victory in a clearly Democratic district in the Lone Star State was fairly predictable, something for which Gov. Greg Abbott was in no rush to call the ballot date since the March 5, 2025, death of Turner, the fact remains that when Menefee is sworn in, the situation for Mike Johnson and company will be even more difficult. Especially with a GOP fractured by the differing sensibilities of the political families.
"Root out ICE"
Menefee, a former Harris County prosecutor in Houston, prevailed over fellow Democrat Amanda Edwards, a former Houston city councilwoman. One of the victor's big supporters was the bellicose Democratic representative Jasmine Crockett. The new congressman has been noted for his fight against Trump's immigration policies.
Something he recalled again on election night, warning that he will fight to open impeachment proceedings against Kristi Noem, "tear ICE by the root" and launched a direct message to President Donald Trump:
"You've been out of touch with the people of Texas' 18th Congressional District for nearly a year. The results here tonight are a mandate for me to work as hard as I can to oppose your agenda, to fight back against where you’re taking this country and to investigate your crimes. And I look forward to doing that."
A special election with election maps in effect and scare for the GOP
The night left a surprising upset for the GOP, as Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a union leader and veteran, swept to a wide victory over Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the Fort Worth-area district, a conservative stronghold where Trump swept to a 17-point lead in 2024.
Three critical run offs before the midterms
From here, the conservative majority tackles three new litmus tests in different states. On Feb. 5, the Democratic primary kicks off to contest the special election to replace Mikie Sherrill, who left her seat to run, and win, the New Jersey governor's seat. The winner will face Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the only Republican to run for a seat Sherrill herself won by 15 points in 2024, on April 16.
More crowded is the race for the seat vacated by MTG after his sounding breakup with Trump. As many as 22 hopefuls are vying for his seat, 17 of them Republicans on March 10. All will go on the same ballot, and if none gets over 50%, there will be a runoff among the top vote-getters on April 7. Georgia's 14th district is clearly Republican-leaning. MTG won in 2024 by 30 points, while Trump saw his presidential candidacy endorsed by 37 points over Kamala Harris.
Finally, California will try to take the place of the late Doug LaMalfa on June 2, nearly six months after the death. The first California district, which will also be contested under the current maps, before gerrymanderism of Gavin Newsom, has a strong Republican tradition.
Johnson, to his slim majority: "Better be here, no adventure sports, take your vitamins"
The critical situation of the GOP majority led the speaker Mike Johnson to address his bench with a desperate appeal, given that parliamentary arithmetic will not allow them any absent-mindedness or missteps:
"They'd better be here. I told everybody, and not in jest, I said, no adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here."
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