MAGA is with Trump: Polls contradict media noise about a rift over Iran war

In recent weeks, various media outlets have insisted that the Make America Great Again movement (MAGA) is fractured by the president's Trump to launch airstrikes and military operations against the ayatollahs' regime in Iran.

According to an analysis by journalist Gabe Fleisher, recently published in The Free Press (TFP), the narrative of a so-called "rebellion" or "civil war" within the MAGA world is largely exaggerated by these media outlets which repeat the same scheme: they highlight figures such as Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene as anti-war voices, and use MAGA activist Laura Loomer as a pro-conflict counterpoint.

None of these articles that have appeared in outlets such as Bloomberg, The Week, Associated Press and ABC News includes "any actual data showing whether MAGA Republicans are as divided as the authors claim."

The author notes that, according to NBC, CNN and YouGov polls conducted since the start of the war, unpopularity of the conflict with Iran comes mostly from Democrats and independents, while the minority of Republicans who oppose it do not belong to the MAGA movement.

YouGov gives the most detailed crosstab information. A "divided" 85%-5% group cannot be considered fragmented, and that the scant Republican opposition to the war comes precisely from sectors not linked to MAGA, contrary to what narratives centered on figures such as Tucker Carlson or Steve Bannon suggest.

The war critics: Newcomers, who are not MAGA

The author argues that the Steve Bannon-style type of Republicans, voters who identify as MAGA and oppose the war, do exist, but they are a really small group once you get out of the world of influencers and podcast hosts. Bannon represents about 5% of the MAGA movement.

Moreover, Fleisher points out that other Republicans who oppose the war are more like listeners to Joe Rogan, who has described the war as "insane," than followers of Steve Bannon: they criticize the conflict, but do not identify with MAGA. These are mostly young men, newcomers to Trumpism in 2024, who are not Bannonites and now show doubts about the results of their bet on Trump.

Sharp gap between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans

The author asserts that MAGA essentially equals Trump, and that attributing the little Republican opposition to the war to MAGA voters is misleading; the data, as CNN recalled, show that such opposition does not come from that sector.

"Within the Republican Party, there is a sharp divide between those who say they consider themselves part of the “Make America Great Again” movement and those who do not, a division that appears largely linked to trust in the president. MAGA Republicans are 30 points more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they strongly approve of the decision to take military action, 34 points likelier to say it will reduce the threat Iran poses to the U.S., and nearly 50 points more likely to say they have a great deal of trust in Trump to make the right decisions about U.S. use of force in Iran."

Polls dismantle the fracture

In conclusion, what the media has portrayed as a deep rift in the MAGA movement appears to be more of a fringe disagreement between influencers and niche activists, with no meaningful translation into grassroots voter opinion.

Polls indicate overwhelming unity in support of Trump's decisions regarding Iran, disproving the idea of an internal rebellion. Gabe Fleisher's analysis suggests that the supposed division is a media mirage that doesn't stand up to the scrutiny of real numbers.