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Analysis

How does the redistricting battle continue after the approval of the new electoral map in the Texas House?

Illinois, New York, Florida, California, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana are now at the center of the dispute.

File image of voters at a polling place

File image of voters at a polling placeAFP

Emmanuel Alejandro Rondón

The Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a new congressional map that, according to projections, could give the party up to five additional seats in the federal Congress in the midterms of 2026. The plan, backed by President Donald Trump and soon to be ratified by Gov. Greg Abbott, turns three traditionally Democratic districts into virtual Republican strongholds and shifts two more, in the southern part of the state, moderately toward the GOP.

The Republican move comes amid an intense national fight for control of Congress. Texas Democrats, who tried to stop the bill by breaking a quorum of the state House for two weeks, succeeded only in delaying the vote. Now, however, Democrats in other states are preparing to respond to Texas and change their electoral maps to add seats for their party through redistricting, also known as gerrymandering.

California ready to fight back

In California, Democrats, led by Gavin Newsom, are moving steadily toward calling a referendum for November that would suspend the work of the independent redistricting commission and approve maps temporarily drawn by the Democratic majority in Congress. A measure very similar to the one applied by Republicans in Texas that, if successful, could give the blue party as many as five additional seats in Congress, according to projections by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

The legislative hearing to call the referendum held in Sacramento was tense: Republicans accused Democrats of spending a multimillion-dollar sum on a special election and breaking the agreement that shielded the independent commission, charged with impartially distributing congressional maps. Democrat Steve Bennett, on the other hand, defended the maneuver by comparing it to a necessary backlash to Republican moves in Texas, whom he branded as authoritarian: "When autocrats change the rules and the norms that we are using to decide who has power, we can either fight back, or we can potentially permanently lose the ability ever to fight back again."

While both parties are accusing each other of rigging the rules of the game in their favor, gerrymandering has been a very common practice in the US in recent decades, with Democrats themselves using this tactic to improve their electoral performance.

Other states in play

Beyond Texas and California, the main states meddling in the battle for the maps, other territories are starting to get into the thick of it. Ohio, for example, is required by law to redraw its districts following the approval of a plan in 2021 without Democratic backing. This redistricting could slightly favor Republicans, who largely dominate the state. In Indiana and Missouri, meanwhile, GOP leaders are pushing their governors to convene special sessions and begin a redistricting process.

In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis has already advanced his intentions, stating that a redrawing of maps can be "anticipated" due to the state's changing demographics.

On the Democratic side, there are already plans to respond; however, attempts to replicate what is happening in California encounter a few more hurdles. In Illinois, Governor JB Pritzker does not rule out adjustments, but his party already controls 14 of the 17 districts, and redistricting would be more complex to add seats. In New York, the situation is an uphill battle: changes would not be possible before 2028 due to constitutional restrictions.

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