No Labels, the group pushing for Joe Manchin to run third-party, will choose a candidate in April

No Labels is a political group that claims to fight against extremes. With consensus and unity as their banner, they work with politicians nationwide to find common-sense, bipartisan solutions to people’s problems. To realize this vision, they seek to promote a solid presidential candidacy outside the traditional parties, led by a moderate figure capable of competing in all 50 states. As reported in the last few hours, that candidate will be selected in April.

Joe Lieberman, a former senator and 2000 vice presidential nominee on Al Gore’s ticket, is the organization’s founding president. In dialogue with Fox News, he revealed that they have already selected a date for the convention and for the nomination of a candidate.

“We already have scheduled a bipartisan convention. Think about it. We haven’t seen that ever in recent history. A bipartisan nominating convention for Dallas, Texas, in April of next year,” he said.

In turn, he clarified that the priority of No Labels is to have its candidate compete in all the US states. “Right now, we’re focused first on what’s most important: On getting on the ballot with a third line in all 50 states that we will then offer and give to a bipartisan unity ticket.”

However, he assured that all this will materialize as long as they are under the impression that they have a real chance of winning. “Our plan is to only run if we think we have a chance to win realistically. And look, we just finished a poll of 10,000 voters in the eight battleground states. And we give them a choice of Trump, Biden and a moderate independent third choice, and 63 percent say they’re open to a moderate Independent third choice.”

Democrats are not at all happy with this idea, given that recent polls projected that the third moderate candidate would benefit the eventual Republican nominee, or at least this is what was reflected in key states.

“This moment demands that both American leaders and citizens declare that they are free from the anger and division that are ruining our politics and, most importantly, our country. A United Front,” they say on their website.

That’s precisely where the figure of Joe Manchin comes in. It is no secret that the group welcomes the fact that the senator from West Virginia is the standard-bearer of the project. The Democrat even participated in events organized by the group and is expected to make his final decision in December.

No Labels internal polls

According to the internal poll they conducted in Arizona, Trump would be four points ahead of Biden in a head-to-head, but with another strong name on the ticket, the gap would extend to ten points. Indeed, this is the state where the potential No Labels candidate would do best, with 29% of the vote.

The scenario is identical in Georgia and North Carolina, where the head-to-head difference is four and eight, respectively, which extends to nine and eight with the independent aggregate. However, the independent candidate would drop to 19%.

The effect would be similar in Pennsylvania, a state considered fundamental for Republican aspirations to return to the White House, where Trump would obtain 43%, Biden 38% and the third-party candidate 19%. Taking the latter option off the table, Democrats and Republicans would tie at 50%.

The incumbent would have better numbers in Nevada, where polls overestimated GOP support in the last two presidential elections. The Silver State would narrowly elect Biden with 51% over Trump’s 49%. The independent candidate could complicate things a bit since their presence would lead to a scenario of parity between the two major players.

The last key state is Wisconsin, which in 2020 was defined by 0.4%, a mere 20,000 votes. The trend there is mixed, as Democrats and Republicans split victories in the midterm elections: Ron Johnson (R) renewed his Senate seat, and Tony Evers (D) renewed his stay in the governor’s mansion.

According to No Labels internal polls, Biden would defeat Trump one-on-one, 53% to 47%. However, with a strong, independent third option, the Republican would rebound and carry the state and its ten electors.