The main candidates to represent the Republican Party in the next presidential elections were frozen. And not only because of the icy weather in Iowa these days, which is breaking low temperature records and endangering participation in the Conservative Caucus, but because of the result of the last poll before the voter do the talking. The poll shows Donald Trump with a resounding lead of almost 30 points over his immediate pursuer, Nikki Haley, who has stolen second place from Ron DeSantis. However, none of the a priori winners of the survey can be calm: The ex-president has lost three points compared to December, also leaving the limit of 50% of voting intention, while the main pollster points out that Haley's 20% sits on "shaky ground" and may not be reflected in actual results.
Iowa Poll shows Nikki Haley leads Ron DeSantis in Iowa Caucuses. Donald Trump far ahead https://t.co/tYErOXKxjU
— Des Moines Register (@DMRegister) January 14, 2024
Trump, still intractable
The survey, conducted by Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Poll, once again shows Trump's overwhelming leadership, although not without certain cracks. This time he must settle for 48% voting intention, 3% less than in December, but he is still 28 points above his immediate pursuer.
2024 IOWA GOP CAUCUS: @DMRegister
Trump: 48% (-3)
Haley: 20% (+4)
DeSantis: 16% (-3)
Ramaswamy: 8% (+3)
Hutchinson: 1% (=)
Binkley: 1% (+1)[Change vs December 7]
• @jaselzer (A+) | @NBCNews
• Jan. 7-12 | 712 LV | MoE: ±3.7%https://t.co/rsPFRW24KQ pic.twitter.com/OKe6Itl7lF— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
DeSantis, between the collapse and the hope of real participation
DeSantis, who lost 3% of voters compared to last month, is the big loser of this latest round. He must settle for third place, with 16% of the ballot. Since the announcement of his candidacy, the governor of Florida has never been able to surpass 19% of the votes, however, he remained in second place as an alternative to his former mentor.
Nevertheless, DeSantis' best asset is that his voters are those who have shown a greater intention to go to the polls despite the elements. "Among DeSantis supporters, 62% say they will definitely attend. Among Trump supporters, it is 56%, and 51% of Haley supporters," the survey shows.
Haley, 'sorpasso' with feet of clay
The complete opposite of Haley. The former governor of South Carolina has been growing in the polls, especially since she has been perceived as the alternative to Trump by conservatives opposed to the former president. This time it gets 20%, four points more than in December. Her big jump, however, occurred in October, when she went from 6% in August to 16%. However, pollster J. Ann Selzer, who led the poll, indicated that the predictions about Haley are on "shaky ground." "The deep data on (Haley) suggests she appears stronger in the poll than she might on caucus night," Selzer said.
This is because "the majority of those who plan to support Haley, declare themselves moderately enthusiastic (49%) or not very enthusiastic (12%). On the contrary, only 9% say they are extremely enthusiastic about Haley's candidacy, while 30% say they are very enthusiastic. "Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping. That 61% are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up," said Selzer.
The rest of the candidates do not reach double digits
On the other hand, Haley can play with the card that the survey was conducted between January 7 and 12. Chris Christie announced his retirement on the 10th, about to close the poll's data collection and, although the former governor of New Jersey was not included in the publication of the results, several of his supporters could give their support to Haley.
The rest of the candidates do not reach double digits. Vivek Ramaswamy is in fourth place with 8% of voting intention. Despite having risen 3%, it is still far from the lead. For their part, pastor Ryan Binkley and Asa Hutchinson, get 1% each. While Hutchinson maintains the same result as in the last edition of the survey, Binkley adds that 1% from zero.
