Kamala Harris, in search of the lost Hispanic vote

The last moves of the Biden-Harris campaign were aimed at Hispanic and black voters, given the importance of both in the November elections and also that both are farther away than ever from the Democratic Party. Now, with Kamala alone, they continue to be priority targets, especially in light of the latest polls that continue to show Donald Trump with increasing support within these communities, especially among Latinos, whose importance at the polls is expected to be critical.

According to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released last Monday and conducted over the weekend when the end of the Biden candidacy was imminent, Trump has higher support among Latino voters. Trump has notably closed the gap among Hispanic voters to just 6 points at best, with Kamala as the nominee (52%-46%). In fact, if Biden had remained the front-runner, the former president would be only two points behind in this demographic's voting intention (47%-45%). 

If you add in the rest of the candidates, especially Robert F. Kennedy, who has a wide support among Hispanics (14%), Kamala herself would settle for a tie at 39% of voting intention with the Republican candidate, while the current president would lose by one point to Trump (39%-38%). Moreover, the Republican's favorability peaked among these voters (46%).

Democrats have lost at least 10 points among Hispanics since 2020

On June 26, in the previous poll from this university, Biden led his conservative rival by 10 points (51-41) among Hispanic voters in a hypothetical showdown between the two. Four years ago, at this point in the electoral race, the difference between the two among Latinos was 10 points (45-35) in favor of the then Democratic candidate. A gap that would reach 16 in the last Quinnipiac poll before the 2020 election.

In its survey How Latino Voters View the 2024 Presidential Election, Pew Research Center also shows how the historical gap that separated the two parties among the Hispanic electorate is disappearing. As a matter of fact, Biden and Trump are tied at 36 points in this poll in terms of the voting intention of this community, while Kennedy would have 24%.  

Hispanics prefer Trump's immigration policies to those of the 'Border Czar' Kamala

Although conducted before the announcement that the current president was not continuing in the race, the numbers serve as a starting point for Kamala heading into November. Moreover, many of the points that penalize Biden are a consequence of his management as leader of the Administration, and which Kamala is a part of. In fact, Hispanics overwhelmingly prefer Trump's policies on immigration (45-39), precisely the area that depended on the 'Border Czar', Kamala. 

The Republican candidate is also winning - by an even wider margin - in Hispanic confidence of economic management (52%-40%). The third area in which Trump is better viewed versus the Democrats is international policy. In contrast, the Blue Party is better viewed when it comes to the selection of judges for abortion (49%-42%) and abortion (50%-45%).

Some data contrast notably with what Hispanics voted for in 2020, when their support for Biden was key to the Democrat's eventual victory. Then, the current president won the backing of 59% of voters, compared to Trump's 38%, a 21-point gap between the two that has disappeared in just three and a half years. 

Nevertheless, Kamala has a strong base to start from if she is able to overcome Hispanics' disappointment with her, since her approval numbers are very similar to Biden's, according to several polls from Axios. According to Pew, with no candidates in the race, the Democratic Party holds a 12-point lead over the GOP (44%-32%) in Latino preferences.