Demographic winter worsens: Hispanics also having fewer children

The U.S. demographic winter worsens. The number of children per woman in 2025 fell to 1.58 from 1.6 the previous year. According to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the situation is complicated by the fact that Hispanics, the driving force behind births in recent years, have also seen their fertility rate decline.

According to the Vital Statistics Rapid Release published by the agency updating data for the last quarter of 2025, there is an overall drop (from 54.6 children per 1,000 women to 53.3) in the fertility rate between the last quarter of the year and the same period in 2024. Non-Hispanic whites are the only group to show a timid rise.

"The provisional number of births for the United States in 2025 was 3,606,400, a 1% decline from the 2024 number (3,628,934). The number of births declined an average of 2% per year from 2015 to 2020 and has generally fluctuated since then. The tentative overall fertility rate for the United States in 2025 was 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, a 1% decrease from the 2024 rate (53.8). The rate has declined overall since 2007, down 23%."

Hispanics account for the sharpest drop; black births in freefall

A particularly steep drop among Hispanics, from 66.1% to 62.3%. Next, blacks, the group with the fewest children among Americans, dropped two and a half points to fall below 50% (48.9% compared to 51.4% in 2024).

For their part, whites are the only ethnic group to register a slight rise in births. in their case, it went from 51.7% in 2024 to 52% in the last quarter of last year.

The impact of Trump's immigration policy

One of the keys to the decline in the number of births lies, according to analysts, in the fierce border closures and Donald Trump's deportations. Thus, births to the immigrant population have suffered a sharp decline. According to Ryan James Girdusky:

"Births to Chinese immigrants are -17.5%, Colombians -10.5%, Ecuadorians -22%, Salvadorans -15%, Guatemalans -16%, Haitians -16%, Hondurans -15%, and Mexicans -13%."

Fertility rate by age group

In addition, the study also collects the fertility rate of U.S. women by age bracket. It highlights the sharp drop in the number of children among teenage girls aged 15 to 19, which registers a new historic low:

"The provisional fertility rate for adolescents in 2025 was 11.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19, 7% lower than in 2024 (12.6) and another historic low for this age group. The rate has declined 72% since 2007 (41.5), the most recent period of continuous decline, and 81% since 1991 (61.8), the most recent peak. The number of births to women aged 15-19 was 125,933 in 2025, down 8% from 2024."

In contrast, the number of births grew slightly among women aged 35-39, 39-44 and 44-54. In the first age group, there were 640,234 births, (a rate of 55.1), up from 622,517 (54.3) the previous year. Among women aged 40-44, the number went from 141,515 in 2024 (12.7) to 142,927 (12.8) in 2025.