As red states grow, Democrats’ path narrows

In their fight to win back control of the House of Representatives, Democrats have threatened to initiate new redistricting. California has already begun its battle to "counteract" the five new seats that the Republicans will have in Texas. But the outlook looks bleak for the party, not only in terms of redistricting, but also due to the population growth in important Republican states  that would affect the Democratic party for the 2032 elections, after the census.

In 2030, the next census will be held; after each census, states usually carry out redistricting. The data shows that the massive influx of Americans into states like Florida and Texas, particularly coming from blue states like California and New York, would make it quite difficult for Democrats to regain control of the House.

According to a projection made by the New York Times, after the 2030 census, following their population growth, Texas and Florida could gain a total of five seats in Congress, and Utah and Idaho could add one new seat each. This would give the Republicans seven new seats.

Democrats, meanwhile, would have a complicated situation. The new seats gained, particularly in Texas and Florida, would be mainly the result of population outmigration from states such as California and New York. It is estimated that the Democrats could lose four seats due to population loss in those two states, particularly in New York, where they would lose three seats.

According to the New York Times analysis, the population of Texas and Florida would increase by almost 13%, gaining millions of residents over the next five years. But on the Democratic side, such important states as New York and Illinois are expected to reduce their population, while California's would barely hold steady.

By 2030, the situation is also complicated on the Democratic side. Although they have threatened to start a battle of new electoral maps to "neutralize" any Republican effort on that issue, and even Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said he was "fed up" with Democrats "taking a pencil to a knife fight" and encouraged his co-supporters to adopt a more aggressive strategy, the truth is that Democrats have used the redistricting tool so extensively that there is already little they can do compared to the chances Republicans would have if indeed states decided to approve new maps in a national battle.

In general, the healthiest thing for democracy is for the parties to strive to push better policies and run good candidates, winning more and more voters. But particularly the Democratic Party is reaping the fruits of their bad policies, which are causing people to flee their states for Republican states. They are also facing the results of the abuse of redistricting, which they have used so much and so indiscriminately that they have been left without much maneuvering range compared to what the Republicans could do.