NY elections: Zohran Mamdani comfortably leads in polls and Hochul, though down, still leads in polls

Democrats lead the poll from Siena College for mayor and governor of New York. Although dropping in the polls, Governor Kathy Hochul still leads her race to retake office by 14 points, while Councilman Zohran Mamdani trails by 19.

The Siena poll confirms Councilman Mamdani's position as the front-runner in the New York City Mayoral race that will be defined at the polls on November 4. Of the 39% of registered voters who participated in the poll, 44% preferred the socialist.

Second was former Governor Andrew Cuomo with 25% of voting intention, who is competing as an independent after losing the Democratic primary against Mamdani. They are followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa with a 12% preference and Mayor Eric Adams with 7%, who is also running as an independent.

"While City Democrats favor Mamdani over Cuomo 53-32%, with single digits for the other two, more than two-thirds of City Republicans support Sliwa," Greenberg explained. He further noted that the Democratic candidate's strength is the young voter: "City voters under 35 are overwhelmingly supporting Mamdani, as are a plurality of voters 35-54, however, voters 55 and older back Cuomo over Mamdani, 38-32%."

Stefanik gains ground

In Hochul's case, however, the gap may raise concerns among her team: in June 23 points separated her from Republican Elise Stefanik, who has yet to formalize her candidacy.

"The Worst Governor in America is losing independents, cratering support, and in political free fall in the latest Siena polling," celebrated Stefanik on social networks. "We will continue to work hard to earn your support to Save NY."

Although she did not comment on the poll, Hochul threw ammunition at her potential opponent on his own networks. "It's simple: the Stefanik-Trump tariffs are a tax hike," she said in the wake of the latest inflation data. "They’re driving up prices and squeezing families. It’s a scam. I’m putting money back where it belongs — in New Yorkers’ pockets."

One of the big differences between the two policies is voter recognition. "Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively," pollster Steven Greenberg argued. While 49% said they are familiar with the Republican, 46% are either unfamiliar or have little knowledge of her.

"Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don’t, and independents are closely divided," he added. After leaning slightly towards the Democrat in the previous poll, in the last one the independents tended towards the Republican.

Her team celebrated the result in a statement published by Newsweek: "The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50 percent on the ballot, and only 35 percent of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul as voters are increasingly looking to Elise Stefanik to deliver new leadership."