The Economist gives Trump more chances to win the election than Kamala Harris
The Republican took advantage of the end of Kamala Harris' 'honeymoon' to bounce back in the polls just weeks before the presidential election.
Trump at his most recent rally in North Carolina/ Logan Cyrus.
The Kamala Harris honeymoon saw its end in early October and since then Donald Trump took back the momentum ahead of the presidential election in November. Little by little, the Republican candidate for president began to recover in the polls, which resulted in some media and electoral projection models placing him ahead of Harris again, including that of The Economist.
The Economist had Harris ahead of Trump at least two months ago, so the change in favor of the Republican is striking less than three weeks before the elections.
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According to its latest forecast, the former president has a 54% chance of winning the election against his Democratic opponent's 45%.
When it comes to calculating his chances in the swing states, The Economist has Trump up in five of the seven and envisions a technical tie in the remaining two, so Harris would not be up in any of them. "Our model puts Trump ahead by a narrow margin in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the candidates are neck and neck in Michigan and Nevada," they explained in their most recent release on Oct. 21.
Nate Silver and the 24 reasons why Trump leads Harris heading into the election
The Economist's forecast is not the only one that flipped in Trump's favor in recent days, as it was soon joined by The Hill, Fivethirtyeight and Nate Silver.
As for the latter, he happens to be one of the most consulted political statisticians, both by users on social networks and by popular political analysts. After exactly one month of Harris' lead, Silver again placed Trump on top, specifically thanks to his lead in most of the key states. His most recent Oct. 20 forecast has Trump with a 53% chance of prevailing in November.
Silver listed 24 reasons for this turnaround, and here are some of the most important ones:
- "Harris leaned far to the left in 2019, adopting many unpopular positions, and really has no viable strategy to explain her shifting positions."
- "Voters are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance of the first three years of Trump's term and associate the problems of 2020 with the Democrats."
- "Harris has been campaigning energetically and has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country."
- "Inflation peaked at 9.1 percentage points in June 2022. It has now declined, but prices are still much higher than when Joe Biden took office, and voters are historically very sensitive to inflation."
- "Ruling parties around the world are performing very poorly."
- "Foreign policy may not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden."
Trump debuts lead in The Hill's forecast
One of the most 'hostile' election forecasting models to Trump had been coming from Decision Deck HQ/The Hill, which had Harris ahead since her entry into the presidential race.
However, its latest model found the Republican up for the first time with 52% to win the Nov. 5 election.
Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’ chances of winning between approximately 54 percent and 56 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent. On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage Oct. 20," explained The Hill.
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