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107 days and counting

SINCE KAMALA HARRIS' LAST PRESS CONFERENCE

Kamala Harris sinks in polls on a black weekend

Donald Trump regains more than half a point in just three days and predictions from left-leaning outlets like 'The Hill' have him winning for the first time.

Elecciones Presidenciales 2024 | Donald Trump señala y Kamala Harris gesticula durante la campaña.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, during the campaign.AFP

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Kamala Harris's decline is becoming increasingly dramatic for Democrats, while conservative voters watch jubilantly as Donald Trump´s support ascends like a rocket in the decisive phase of the campaign. The Blue Party candidate ceded more than half a point in just three days according to major polling aggregators. To top off her bleak weekend, the predictions of The Hill gave the victory to the former president for the first time since the official nomination of the vice president.

If last Friday the nerves were evident among Democratic leaders, the weekend has put them on the brink of collapse. In just three days, Kamala has lost 0.5 points to Trump according to Real Clear Politics (1.4-0.9) and 0.6 according to the more left-leaning 538 (2.4-1.8).

According to 'The Hill,' Trump is projected to secure 272 electors, compared to Harris's 266

Some worrying data, further aggravated by predictions from a newspaper closely aligned with the Democratic sphere, like 'The Hill,' which for the first time projects the Republican candidate as the winner. At the moment, Trump is expected to secure 272 electoral votes, compared to Kamala's 266.

very tight vote, but one which follows a very worrying pattern for the Blue Party, since it affects the downward trajectory of the vice-president against the upward thrust of the conservative candidate. Moreover, the newspaper warns that Trump is consolidating his lead in most of the swing states. Although the conservative's lead is still within the margin of error of the polls, it is very significant that the picture is holding up poll after poll, regardless of who the pollster is.

Nor is it exactly reassuring that celebrity pollster Nate Silver also echoes that Trump has flipped major polls in record time. Not only that: the data Silver handles, based on "three recent high-quality national polls," puts "Donald Trump in the lead, a difficult circumstance for Harris." He gives 7 points more chance to Trump.

Kamala's fall drags down Democrats in both houses of Congress

Going back to The Hill, Kamala would drag down both houses of Congress in her fall. In fact, according to her numbers, the GOP would have a 71% chance of capturing the Senate and a 54% chance of retaining control of the House.

These results leave Democratic leaders at an uncertain crossroads. Especially since the endorsements and popularity of the Harris-Walz ticket has plummeted since both began to be interviewed.... And that, except for the visit of both -separately- to FOX, all have been in like-minded media and with more or less clear help, including the debate on ABC with Trump, where the moderators were simply two more de facto Democrats or the heavily edited CBS edition of the 60 Minutes to remove the "vice president's word salads."

The latest polls are leaning one after another for the Republican, causing aggregators to reflect that narrowing of the gap that came to exist between the two candidates at the point that pollsters called "the Kamala moment." Something that Democrats themselves acknowledge is over. And with the election just 15 days away.

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