Donald Trump continues to lead in the polls ahead of the November presidential elections. In what will be the first presidential rematch since 1956, according to the polling numbers the Republican is set to defeat Joe Biden in six of seven key states, thus achieving a second term in the White House. The perception of the economy and his personal performance are damaging the president’s positive image. Indeed, since measurements began, no president has been more unpopular than Biden at this point in his term.
According to a series of polls by The Wall Street Journal, the former president is projected to return to the White House thanks to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. However, he would fall short in Wisconsin.
With these results, Trump would recover almost the entire industrial north, blowing up the ‘blue wall’ as he did in 2016. He would also add Nevada, a state he failed to win in his two previous elections and where polls tend to overestimate Republican support.
“In every state in the survey, negative views of the president’s job performance outweigh positive views by 16 percentage points or more, with the gap topping 20 points in four states. By contrast, Trump earns an unfavorable job review for his time in the White House in only a single state—Arizona—where negative marks outweigh positive ones by 1 percentage point,” The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) explained.
The economy and the southern border: the reasons for Biden’s downfall
In short, the president does not inspire voters’ confidence on the most sensitive issues, such as the economy and border security. For example, respondents trust Trump more to address these issues by a margin of 20 percentage points each. The result was the same when the WSJ about who has the most physical and mental fitness to be president. They only trust the Democrat more to handle abortion.
“The latest poll finds that voters in the swing states are more focused on the economy than are voters nationwide. Some 35% cite the economy and inflation as the issues most important to their vote, compared with 19% in the Journal’s national survey in February. They are also a bit more pessimistic about it. Only 25% say the economy has gotten better in the past two years, compared with 31% in the national poll,” adds the WSJ.
The survey also found that Biden is not assured (far from it) of the coalition votes that led him to victory in 2020. Indeed, more and more African Americans, Hispanics and young voters are turning to the GOP.
RFK Jr. wouldn’t change the equation
John F. Kennedy’s nephew has already announced his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, and is fighting to get on the ballot in all 50 states.
However, his participation in the key states would not alter Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. On the contrary, it would expand his margin of victory in two of them.
The survey was conducted between March 17 and 24, with a sample of 4,200 voters (600 per state) contacted by phone or text message. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the full sample and 4 points for results in individual states.
