The latest survey by The New York Times and Siena is a slap in the face for Joe Biden. The survey is full of bad news for the Democratic Party, since it concludes that the current president is far behind Donald Trump. The survey also shows that there is a considerable gap in key demographic groups, such as Hispanics, with a six-point difference. As if that weren't enough, the newspaper’s headline is even more eye opening: "Voters doubt Biden's leadership and favor Trump, Times/Siena poll found."
President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald Trump, a poll by The New York Times and Siena College found. https://t.co/ZVbcsYXUAj
— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 3, 2024
Earthquake for Democrats
Voters give the former president a 5-point advantage (48-43%), which increases by one point in the case of Hispanics (40-46%). This will certainly shake up democratic interests. Traditionally, the party has always won the Hispanic vote. According to the survey, these same Latino voters voted massively (60%) for the current president in 2020 when he went head to head against Donald Trump (30%).
At the moment, Biden has a wide lead among Black voters (66-23%), but that might not be enough to continue leading the country. In fact, their vote has changed since 2020 it is even more worrying than the case of Hispanics. Biden had 87% of Black votes four years ago compared to 66% of support today. Trump had 6% then and has shot up to 23% of the vote now.
Biden has his lowest approval rating yet in the NYT poll
When voters were asked who they think will win the election, regardless of each person's preferences, respondents mostly pointed to Trump. According to the survey, almost half of the participants in the sample (48%) believe the former president will return to the Oval Office, compared to 39% who believe Biden will be re-elected.
But the bad news was not limited to Biden's potential as a candidate but also to his current work. Sixty-one percent of voters disapprove of Biden’s work. The majority of them (47%) "strongly" disapprove of his management. This is his worst result in the NYT and Siena polls. In this sense, more than twice as many citizens believe that this administration’s policies have harmed them (43%). Only 18% believe Biden’s policies have helped them. Furthermore, a notable majority (51%) believes that the country's economic situation is "poor."
Kamala is worse than Biden; Haley is better than Trump
The survey also asked voters what they would think if Kamala Harris took the president's place in November to run against Trump. This result is even worse, since they would lose overall by 6% of the votes (41-47%), and the gap between Hispanic voters would skyrocket to 14 points.
In addition, the survey asked about Nikki Haley, pointing out that the former governor of South Carolina would be able to defeat Biden even more comfortably. In the event that the race was held between the two, the former ambassador to the U.N. would win by 10 points (45-35%). If Haley were the conservative nominee, Hispanic support would rise two points more than in the case of Trump, reaching 8 points (31-43%). Furthermore, the distance between conservatives and Democrats in this scenario would be considerably reduced, from 45 points between the former president and the current president to 23.
