If the data shown by the latest polls comes true in this year's November elections, Donald Trump would become the Republican presidential candidate with the highest percentage of Black voters since Richard M. Nixon in 1960. This issue surprises many, mainly because the Democratic Party and major media outlets have repeatedly called Trump a racist.
The reality is that more and more polls show that President Joe Biden is losing support in the Black community. This is a particularly damaging issue for the Democratic Party since the Black vote has been one of its pillars to win elections.
What the polls say
A poll carried out by the Wall Street Journal in seven swing states shows the movement of the Black vote toward the Republican party, or particularly toward Donald Trump.
The Biden rejection effect appears to be greater among Black men. According to this survey, 30% of Black men plan to vote for former President Trump. However, no comparison survey has been conducted in the seven main swing states that separate the vote by race. When compared to national surveys from four years ago, a significant shift is seen in the voting intention of the Black community.
According to AP VoteCas, in 2020, Trump received 12% of the vote from Black men, indicating an increase of 18 points within that group. For Biden, among Black men, there was a loss of 30 points, going from 87% in 2020 to 57% in the recent WSJ survey.
Although the percentage of support for Trump in the WSJ survey, which focused on swing states, is higher than the support he obtains in national surveys, even in general polls, it remains clear that Trump's popularity among Black voters is on the rise.
According to a New York Times poll, 23% of Black voters would vote for Trump. According to exit polls, Trump would have received around 8% of the black vote in 2016, an increase of 15 points in support for the Republican.
According to the Pew Research Center, in 2020, 92% of Black voters supported Biden. According to the New York Times poll, if the election were held now, only 66% of Black voters would choose President Biden again, a loss of 26 points.
The Black community is concerned about the economy
Discontent with President Biden among the Black community can also be seen when analyzing the current president's approval rating. According to the Pew Center survey of January 2022, 60% of Black adults approved of the president's performance, but in January, Biden's approval among that population group had fallen to 48%.
According to the New York Times poll, 51% of Black people describe the current economic situation as "poor" and only 25% believe it is "good." While 43% of Black voters say the economy is worse now than four years ago.
