A survey conducted by Impact Research and published by The Wall Street Journal shows that the Democrats have highlighted issues like abortion and guns that are of less concern to Americans than problems emphasized by Republicans such as inflation and crime. The Democratic Party's blurred focus could mark a shift in votes towards the GOP next Tuesday, Nov. 8.
According to the survey, Republicans have gained momentum in recent weeks, leading them to outperform Democrats by two points in projected votes, 46% to 44%. WSJ notes that this difference falls within the margin of error, which is two and a half points. What is relevant, however, is the trend: just two months ago, it was the Democrats who held a three point lead.
According to Republican analyst Tony Fabrizio, most undecided voters are mainly concerned about the economy, which does not favor the Democrats. "The focus on the economic stuff, particularly inflation, is helpful to the GOP headed into the final stretch."
White suburban women
A main takeaway from the survey, in addition to change of heart of American voters as a whole, is the shift being seen within certain groups:
The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which pollsters say makes up 20% of the electorate, pulled 26 percentage points away from the Democrats since the Journal's August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.
One of the highlights of this survey is the level of enthusiasm different ethnic groups showed for voting. When asked to rate their motivation to go to the polls from 1 to 10, the higher the score the higher the motivation, 83% of whites responded with the maximum 10.
This level of enthusiasm was not shown by two groups that typically vote overwhelmingly Democrat. In the case of Hispanics, only 64% rated their motivation at 10. This could mean that many will not turn out, possibly because they do not feel convinced by the party they traditionally vote for. It could also mean they have changed the direction of their vote, especially possible do to the increase in the Hispanic Republican vote.
On the other hand, black respondents, who traditionally vote Democratic by a wide margin, also showed less motivation to participate in the electoral process. According to the survey, only 68% rated their enthusiasm to vote at a 10.
54-46
The direction of change in voter preferences is clear. What remains to be seen is the extent of the red wave, and whether it will extend to the House of Representatives, the Senate and state governors. The most recent poll from Real Clear Politics projects Republicans to win a majority of 54 senators to just 46 for the Democrats. FiveThirtyEight has the GOP as the favorite (51%) control the Senate for the first time since July.
The survey also reports that 71% of Americans believe the country is going in a bad direction, compared to just 19% who think it is going well. Further, on the eve of the midterm elections, Joe Biden is the lowest-rated Democratic president since 1974 according to a Gallup poll.
