The Meloni phenomenon: The prime minister who knew how to change the political game in Italy

British newspaper The Telegraph referred recently to Italy's positive transformation under the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, as 'the Meloni miracle'.

After three years in power, the conservative leader has managed to return international credibility to the country, attract foreign investment and increase employment levels. Italy, which for years was considered "the sick man of Europe," is now seen as an island of political and economic stability in the midst of a continent shaken by crisis and uncertainty.

It should be recalled that before Meloni's election in September 2022, there were warnings from many media and political figures of the establishment that the Italian could become a Mussolini modern, due to the alleged fascist origins of her party Brothers of Italy. However, despite this initial narrative, the prime minister has been able to win the respect of her opponents and has successfully navigated both the domestic problems facing her country and the turbulent waters of foreign policy.

Meloni's rise from a controversial and marginal political figure to a giant on the world political stage over the years is admirable. Despite the stigma that surrounded her, the Italian leader "has veered toward common sense and the mainstream in many quarters," Bobby McDonagh, former Irish ambassador to Italy, told The Telegraph.

Italy, an 'oasis of stability' in a Europe in crisis

According to the data, markets believe Meloni has provided three years of political stability, a major achievement in a country where prime ministers tend to last a very short time.

Guido Tabellini, professor of economics at Bocconi University in Milan, told The Telegraph that Meloni's government "has followed a simple and effective political and economic strategy: keep public spending under control and collaborate with Brussels."

"The strategy has paid off. Public spending is growing less than the eurozone average, employment is rising and Italy is seen as an oasis of peace in a world rocked by crises," he added.

After the pandemic of COVID-19, Italy received, through the Next Generation EU program, approximately 209 billion euros earmarked for its recovery: 85 billion in transfers (grants) and 124 billion in low-interest loans, which has allowed the Meloni government to manage these resources skillfully with the aim of allocating them to investments and Italy's economic recovery.

According to the statistical institute Istat, the GDP growth in Italy will be +0.6% in 2025 and +0.8% in 2026, and employment growth in terms of full-time equivalents will be +1.1% in 2025 and +1.2% in 2026.

Similarly, Italy projects an annual deficit of less than 3.0% of GDP by 2025, according to the Public Finance Planning Document approved by the government, well below the 5.7% expected to accumulate France, or that of 5.8% in the United Kingdom.

On the other hand, the EY Attractiveness Survey Italy results reveal a 5% growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Italy in 2024, compared to 2023, with 224 FDI projects announced in 2024, compared to 214 in the previous year. This figure represents a trend contrary to that of the European context, where a decrease of 5% has been recorded for 2024, following a similar figure recorded in 2023.

Meloni has also not hesitated to attract high net worth individuals internationally. The tax regime of 200,000 euros - which allows taxation by means of an annual flat fee on income from abroad- has made Milan a refuge for many Britons from abroad seeking to protect their wealth, especially in the face of the tighter tax policies proposed by the Labor Party in the United Kingdom.

The Italian government has also managed to drastically reduce the number of migrants arriving by boat from the northern coasts of Africa. So far this year, 49,000 irregular immigrants have arrived on its shores, compared to 130,000 in the same period in 2023.

Meloni conveys "seriousness and reliability"

The Italian prime minister has been able to restore her country's credibility in the international arena, for her support for the Western alliance led by President Donald Trump in the fight against Ukraine against the Russian invasion, and for establishing strong relations with such politically opposed world leaders as the Republican leader and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

"I think the secret of his success is his seriousness and reliability. She studies every file down to the smallest detail. She is incredibly hardworking. She has a good sense of irony, but she is also very self-critical," a government insider closely linked to the coalition told The Telegraph.

Moreover, in May, the vice president, JD Vance, and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, held a trilateral meeting with Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen, at Palazzo Chigi in Rome.

After the meeting, the vice president identified two qualities that make her a skilled political operator. "The first is that she knows how to listen very well. So if there are two people who disagree on something, she tries to understand where they're both coming from, and she's perspicacious enough to understand that," he said.

"The second thing is that she's extraordinarily direct. She reminds me a little bit of [his wife] Usha in that sense, in that she can convey an extraordinarily direct message without being offensive. That's just a skill, isn't it? There's a skill in being direct with someone but without raising your guard," Vance added.

Italy’s population ages with crisis on the horizon

Despite Meloni's good government management; economic growth remains modest. According to the government, it will be 0.5% this year.

Moreover, according to The Telegraph, Italy's fertility rate has plummeted to 1.18, below the EU average (1.38) and below the figure of 2.1 needed for the population to remain stable.

The government has admitted that the situation is desperate. "Italy is aging, the birth rate is declining, whole areas of the country are emptying. These ruthless figures must become a catchword for action," declared Giancarlo Giorgetti, minister of the economy, over the summer.

Added to this is the issue of national debt, the second highest in the eurozone after Greece. It is expected to rise to nearly 137.6% of GDP in 2026, up from 136.9% in 2025.