Conservative Nawrocki leads the second round of elections for the Polish presidency

Poland is closely following the advance of conservative and nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki,who appears as the favorite in a second poll disclosed after the polls closed in the presidential runoff. This new poll, conducted by the Ipsos firm, shows Nawrocki with 50.7% of the vote to 49.3% for the liberal and pro-European Rafał Trzaskowski, a turnaround from the first poll which, hours earlier, favored Trzaskowski by a slim margin.

Both studies are based on exit polls and partial results collected after polling stations closed on Sunday. The poll's margin of error is 1 percent, which still leaves open the possibility of a close outcome.

Who are the candidates?

Karol Nawrocki is a historian and current president of the Institute of National Remembrance, a key institution in the defense of Poland's historical legacy. Backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), Nawrocki represents a new generation of conservative leadership that prioritizes traditional values, national sovereignty and a European identity based on cooperation between states, not bureaucratic centralization in Brussels.

His positions include the defense of life, the strengthening of the family and the criticism of policies imposed by the European Union that, according to his words, do not always respond to the realities of the Eastern countries. His vision is aligned with other European leaders who advocate for a strong Europe, but respectful of national differences.

Rafał Trzaskowski, for his part, is the current mayor of Warsaw and a leading figure in the liberal bloc, represents the progressive option in this contest. Close to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, he has made a career within the European institutions and is seen as a champion of the progressive social agenda, including recognition of new family forms, liberalization of abortion and support for EU-driven climate measures.

A result with impact beyond Poland

The outcome of this election will not only mark Poland's domestic political course. It will also influence the country's relationship with the European Union, the unity of the bloc vis-à-vis Russia and the debates on democracy, sovereignty and fundamental rights that are currently affecting many nations in the continent.

While waiting for the official results, international attention is focused on this duel that could redefine Poland's role in Europe and in the world.