China, Russia, drug traffickers, Islamic terrorism, AI and quantum computing: the main threats to the country

The Intelligence Community released its annual report on the major threats facing the country. Among them, it highlights in a special way the other two great superpowers, China and Russia, and warns of two fronts that will star in the race for world hegemony: the Arctic and space. In addition, and despite the great results achieved by Donald Trump on the southern border, drug production and trafficking groups continue to be at the top of the hegemony./b>remain at the top of the danger list, along with challenges originating fromnew technology such as AI and quantum computing.

According to The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) -the Intelligence Community's (IC) official assessment of a number of threats looming over U.S. citizens, the homeland, and U.S. interests around the world- , "Recent initiatives to strengthen homeland defense have had positive effects, but much remains to be done to address the complex and evolving threats facing the United States."

"For example, border security has been particularly successful thanks to President Trump's closure of the U.S.-Mexico border. Migrant encounters and fentanyl seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border have declined dramatically since early 2025, thanks to a combination of tougher U.S. policies and regional security measures. However, transnational criminal organizations threaten our citizens, primarily through the production and trafficking of illicit drugs, responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Americans, and by facilitating flows of illegal migrants into the U.S. Various terrorist groups, especially those motivated by Islamist ideology, continue to pose a threat to the freedom and lives of Americans, both at home and abroad. In addition, state and non-state actors have the capability to directly attack the homeland."

"The global security landscape is becoming increasingly complex."

In addition, Intelligence warned that "the global security landscape is becoming increasingly complex. The risk of global economic fragmentation is increasing, and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, are expected to have a significant impact on national security. In addition, armed conflicts are becoming more frequent on a global scale, competition among major powers continues, and the military capabilities of state and non-state actors are improving. Intensifying competition for supply chains and technological primacy, greater threat diversity in key areas, and unresolved or potential regional conflicts create interrelated risks."

That, yes, the report notes the importance of analyzing all these risks to properly gauge which ones really threaten the country and their degree of importance: "In a more complex world, it is especially important that we think wisely and prioritize our efforts, that we find opportunities to promote peace and mutually beneficial solutions to problems, while not underestimating those threats that do affect our freedom and our interests."

Risks in the national territory

Thus, the report first studies the threats in the national territory itself, headed by Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs), drug trafficking, Islamist terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Immigration, despite the spectacular data achieved by Donald Trump in his first year in office, continues to appear on this list:

The Intelligence Community (IC) sees the country facing a variety of threats over the next year, including our top concerns: transnational organized crime, illicit drug trafficking, migration, the threat of Islamist ideology and terrorism, great power competition, and threats related to weapons of mass destruction. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) smuggle illegal drugs into the United States, commit financial fraud and launder money through international financial institutions. The 2025 U.S. policy changes on illegal migration and increased enforcement efforts at the U.S.-Mexico border and regionally have deterred illegal immigration and drastically reduced the number of migrants intercepted, but the underlying factors that for years have driven migration to the United States from various parts of the world remain largely unchanged.

The report also studies as threats to the country's security Russian and Chinese maneuvers in the Arctic"to counter what they perceive as U.S. advances and advance their strategic interests." The development by China, Russia and North Korea of "new, novel or advanced launch systems to augment or gain the capability to attack national territory" are also discussed in this section.

Drug production and trafficking

Regardingillicit drug trafficking, Intelligence highlights that, thanks to Trump's border pressure and the collaboration of Mexican authorities in their fight against drug trafficking, seizures of fentanyl have been reduced by 56%since the Republican's return to the White House. Also the internal wars between cartels in the neighboring country have contributed to these numbers.

According to the document, "fentanyl and other synthetic opioids remain the most lethal drugssmuggled into the country, causing more than 38 000 deaths in the United States during the 12-month period from September 2024 to September 2025. This represents a nearly 30% decrease in synthetic opioid-related overdose deaths, according to CDC data."

Within the TCOs linked to drug trafficking, Intelligence distinguishes between those sbased in Mexico -with the Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels of New Generation at the head-; theColombian ones, with the FARC and ELN as prominent elements. It also includes China and Indiain this batch, although it acknowledges "a notable improvement" in the figures for both nations.

Mexico, Colombia, China and India, the main focal points

The report notes that the Mexican cartels "are the main producers and suppliers of illicit drugs, such as fentanyl, heroin, methamphetamine and cocainesourced from South America, for the U.S. market." Due to the difficulty they encounter in getting their merchandise across the southern border, new formulas are being investigated.

For their part, the TCOs and illegal armed groups based in Colombia, "are responsible for the production and trafficking of large volumes of cocaine to the U.S. and European markets. Colombia remains the world's largest cocaine producer, and Colombian criminal groups have expanded their trafficking networks with neighboring gangs in Ecuador and Brazil".

However, and despite "a marked improvement," China and India "remain the main source countries for illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals and pill-pressing equipment." The report notes that "Beijing agreed to stop the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals to North America, issued an industry advisory notice to China-based companies, and established a new export licensing requirement for certain fentanyl precursor chemicals."

Also India "has intensified its efforts in the fight against drug trafficking over the past year. In January 2026, Prime Minister Modi and other Indian officials expressed their readiness to deepen collaboration with the United States in the fight against drug trafficking."

Hispanic gangs in the U.S., a violent risk

In addition, Intelligence identifies other TCOs, with lesser ties to drug trafficking, as a national security risk. These groups "threaten public health and safety domestically, as well as the welfare of civilians and partners abroad, through their violent criminal activities and expansion efforts. These groups engage in a broad range of violent criminal activities, including murder, kidnapping, robbery, human trafficking, prostitution, extortion, drug trafficking and firearms-related crimes, sometimes alternating between competition and collaboration with other transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) in the region, fueling increased violence and instability."

Among them, the report highlights the Venezuelan-based transnational gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) - both based in the U.S. - and Haitian gangs which threaten the security and stability of Haiti through their attacks against security forces and use of intimidation and sexual violence against the civic populationand which, since September 2025, have carried out periodic gun attacks against the U.S. Embassy compound in Port-au-Prince.

Expansion of Islamist and Islamic terrorist groups

Next, the report points to the expansion of Islamist ideology and Islamic terrorist groups as a major threat to national security. U.S. involvement in the Iran war or in the fight against terrorist organizations has increased the risk of attacks within our borders. Intelligence notes, however, that two of the most dangerous branches, ISIS and Al Qaeda "are considerably lower than at their respective peaks in the early 2000s and mid-2010s."

"Jihadist ideology and influencers play a key role in inciting violence through the dissemination of anti-Western and pro-armed struggle narratives. Such narratives have influenced most of the violent Sunni extremist attacks perpetrated in the United States in recent years. Those promoting Islamist ideology have been able to appeal to a wider and younger audience through the use of technology and, in recent years, have increasingly focused on emotional and resentment-based narratives, rather than traditional jihadist academic and ideological writings. In addition, migrants who were already influenced by Islamism prior to their arrival, especially in Europe, pose risks that could increase given the deteriorating security environment in some countries."

Race against time against Russia for the Arctic

The next localized threat is the race for the Arctic. A challenge in which the main rival is Russia, which is in an advantageous positionat the moment.

"Russia has the largest Arctic coastline and is considered part of the region. Russia is our main challenge in the Arctic as it seeks to advance its interests in the region as part of a broader competition for the global balance of power. Moscow seeks to broaden and deepen its presence in the Arctic through increased maritime trade, natural resource extraction and military activity. In addition to its own domestic economic and security concerns, this activity is intended to counter what is perceived as a growing U.S. emphasis on expanding its influence and presence in the Arctic as a key strategic national security objective. As a non-Arctic country, China undertakes more limited efforts in the region to promote its strategic and economic interests, primarily through its relationship with Russia, and Beijing has stated its intention to increase its presence when international waters become accessible.

Russia controls approximately half of the Arctic coastline and considers the region essential to its economic well-being and national security. Moscow wants to further develop its Arctic oil and gas reserves and position itself to reap the benefits of the expected increase in maritime trade. While Russia has improved its ability to operate in the Arctic by focusing on combat readiness and using dual-use technologies and facilities for defense, its war with Ukraine has limited its ability to fully achieve its Arctic ambitions."

Technological threats: AI and quantum computing

Nor does the report neglect technological threats, especially in the wake of the explosion of AI and its potential military uses. To this it adds quantum computing, still under development, but which will be the next revolution:

"Leadership in emerging technologies increasingly determines power and influence on a global scale. For technological powerhouses such as the United States and China, artificial intelligence and quantum information science - especially quantum computing - are at the heart of this leadership competition. These technologies will generate vast new capabilities in the coming years that will impact countries' economies and national security advantages. At the same time, these technologies pose new risks across the spectrum of national and homeland security interests that require rigorous analysis and mitigation measures from the outset."

AI revolution reaches defense, Intelligence and warfare

Regarding AI, intelligence notes that "in the defense sector, AI has already been used in recent conflicts to influence targeting and expedite decision making, which is a significant change in the nature of modern warfare. AI also has the potential to contribute to the design of weapons and systems, influence offensive and defensive cyber operations, and increase the autonomy of unmanned vehicles."

In addition, AI also has a prominent use in the intelligence domain, enabling analysts to "quickly interpret huge data sets and generate novel insights and perspectives on complex national security issues.". However, "these applications also carry risks that require careful human engineering to adequately mitigate the risk of AI autonomy before widespread deployment."

Global race to be pioneers in quantum computing

Although "the timeline for the transition to quantum computing is unclear due to a multitude of challenges," pioneers in the development of quantum computers "will provide their countries with an extraordinary technological advantage over others, both in terms of the ability to rapidly process information related to national security and to crack current encryption methods. Quantum computers are made up of quantum bits, or qubits, which perform a similar function to the bits in today's digital computers."

Right now, the United States, China, the EU, Japan and the United Kingdom are investing billions of dollars to become early movers in this field, overcoming the significant challenges they face. Challenges to overcome "include the need for more effective public-private coordination, scaling up qubits and the overall architecture of quantum computers, and R&D in key areas such as advanced software and algorithms, materials, hardware, and standards and benchmarks, at a minimum."

Intel Intelligence warns that "the emergence of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC), which no country has yet built, poses a threat to the encryption on which secure online transactions and communications are based. A CRQC could crack current encryption methods used to protect sensitive financial, healthcare and government information, which would jeopardize the confidentiality and integrity of information. The far-reaching consequences of such a compromise have reinforced technology leaders' interest in quantum computing-resistant encryption methods to safeguard national security information."

Space, the new front

From here, the report goes on to analyze global threats, analyzing by zones and major players. In this section, in addition to Russia and China, Intelligence analyzed the situation caused by the Iran war, as well as themajor challenges rregarding Europe, Eurasia, Africa, and the new front that can decide the wars of the future -already almost the present-: space.

In this field, China has become the great rival of the USA, after ousting Russia in the space race. A key section, since "the rapid advances in space technology, the reduction of entry barriers, the deployment of anti-space systemsand the expansion of civilian and military applications have consolidated the space domain as a key scenario for strategic competition and future conflicts".

In addition, Intelligence warns that "the declining costs of space launches and satellite manufacturing have enabled a greater number of actors - both state and non-state entities - to develop or leverage each other's space capabilities. Now, a wider range of actors can use space capabilities to threaten U.S. military operationsand its allies, expose sensitive U.S. intelligence activities, and facilitate illicit activities such as drug trafficking and terrorism."

China, the great rival in Star Wars

As for rival countries, "China has eclipsed Russia as the main U.S. competitor in space. Beijing's rapid deployment of space capabilities allows it to use space to further its foreign policy goals, challenge U.S. military and technological superiority in space and project its power on a global scale."

However, the danger from the Kremlin cannot be underestimated, as Moscow "remains a capable space power, despite the fact that its space industry suffers from systemic underfunding, quality control problems, international sanctions and export controls."

"Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, have highlighted on a global scale the importance of space services in military operations. Ukraine has demonstrated for the first time that a country lacking its own space infrastructure can integrate commercial and partner space services to defend itself against an adversary with consolidated space systems and decades of experience in military space operations."

Cyberspace, a global threat

In addition to space, cyberspace is another area of concern for intelligence services. Thus, "cyber actors from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, as well as ransomware groups, will continue to pose serious threats to U.S. networks and critical infrastructure. These global cyber actors will almost certainly continue their malicious activities, as they derive unparalleled intelligence-gathering value from these operations, as well as economic incentives. These cyber adversaries also have the ability to prepare or execute disruptive and destructive attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure and other targets. They continue to invest resources in operations aimed at compromising U.S. systems and critical global computing resources."

At this time, "China is currently the most active and persistent cyber threat to U.S. government networks, the private sector and critical infrastructure, while Russia poses a persistent and advanced cyber and foreign intelligence threat. Both countries continue their R&D and pre-positioning efforts to enhance their world-class cyberattack capabilities for use against the US."

To these must be added Iran, "a threat to US networks and critical infrastructure in the form of cyber espionage and cyberattacks." Intelligence warns that "Iranian cyber operators have previously used cyberattacks against poorly defended targets and weaker opponents, such as Albania." In addition, Intelligence notes that the Ayatollah Regime has used cyberattacks in retaliation for the Middle East war:

For example, "on March 11, a ghacker group linked to Iran claimed responsibility for a cyberattack against a U.S. medical technology company, in retaliation for U.S. attacks against Iran. The hacker group claimed to have wiped 200,000 systems and extracted 50 terabytes of data from the company."

Weapons of mass destruction

"Countries with WMD capabilities are modernizing, expanding and testing those capabilities and their delivery systems. The range of WMD threats to the United States will increase as states develop more diverse use options and delivery systems that can lower the threshold for use, evade U.S. missile defenses, or evade detection. The continued development and incorporation of these dual-use technologies also challenges the intelligence community's (IC) ability to collect and detect their emergence or developmental advances, including those related to weapons of mass destruction, and to identify ways to counter the development and production of these capabilities," the report discusses.

In this area, Intelligence notes that "it is likely that China, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia will continue to research, develop and deploy delivery systems that increase their range and accuracy, test U.S. anti-missile defensesand offer new options for the use of weapons of mass destruction."

At present, "Russia has the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons arsenal, and is modernizing its nuclear capabilities despite multiple failures in testing new systems."

The report further emphasizes that "Prior to Operation Epic Fury, Iran was developing increasingly advanced missile systems, was in non-compliance with its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention, had not abandoned its intention to conduct R&D activities on biological agents and toxins for offensive purposes, intended to recover from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure suffered during the 12-Day War, and was refusing to comply with its nuclear obligations to the IAEA, including preventing IAEA access to key nuclear facilities." Which prompted the combined US-Israeli attacks.

Chemical weapons

Within the section on weapons of mass destruction, Intelligence devotes a special chapter to chemical weapons. According to its reports, "most states with chemical and biological weapons programs have developed these weapons for tactical uses, such as targeted assassinations, special military operationsand counterterrorism or counterintelligence operations, and are likely to maintain these investments for years to come."

In addition, "states with chemical and biological weapons programs are developing a range of capabilities designed to test the ability to detect, treat or attribute attacks, and in recent years somehave developed, maintained or expanded large-scale chemical and biological weapons capabilities for battlefield use. China, North Korea, and Russia likely maintain the knowledge and capability to produce and employ traditional pathogens and biological toxins, and, historically, have sought - or, in the case of North Korea, continue to seek - pathogens that cause highly infectious or contagious diseases."