James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by three points in Texas Senate race: Poll sounds alarm for Republicans

A new poll by Fox News among registered Texas voters found that Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by three points (51% to 48%), a difference that, while within the margin of sampling error, is enough to set off alarm bells within the Republican Party in a state that President Donald Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024.

The poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research between July 23 and 27 with a sample of 1,006 registered voters, shows that Paxton, the Texas attorney general, has failed to unify the Republican electorate despite Trump's endorsement in the primary against Senator John Cornyn, who was seen as a more conciliatory and moderate candidate to face Talarico, considered an extremist figure on the Democratic side.

Despite being significantly further to the left than many Democrats, Talarico enjoys nearly unanimous support among Democrats (98%) and a majority of independents (68%). Republican support for Paxton is slightly weaker (89%), and furthermore, a quarter of Republicans not aligned with Trumpism (24%) lean toward the Democratic candidate.

Another concerning figure for the GOP is that Talarico's lead widens to 6 points among the most engaged voters—those who say they are extremely motivated or extremely interested in the midterm elections—with 53% supporting him compared to 47%. This enthusiasm gap also generally favors the Democrats, who lead Republicans by 7 points in motivation and by 6 points in interest in the election.

According to the poll, Paxton's decline in support has more to do with his personal image than with his opponent's ideology: 59% of voters say they are concerned about whether the Republican has the character necessary to serve as a senator, compared to 47% who believe Talarico is too extreme. That concern is even more pronounced within the Republican ranks themselves, where twice as many voters question Paxton's character as there are Democrats who fear Talarico's extremism (36% versus 17%).

Republican political scientist Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News polls alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, attributed Paxton's weakness to the scars left by the tough primary against Cornyn. According to Shaw, the Republican candidate "has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents," for which he will need to "aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party's far left."

This is one of the races that could shape the 2026 midterms. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate; if Democrats can flip a seat in Texas, the momentum would be significant and pave the way for a blue victory in November. However, in previous election cycles, polls tended to underestimate the actual performance of Republican candidates, who have prevailed time and again in Texas. In fact, the last time Texas elected a Democratic governor was in 1990, when Ann Richards was elected. You have to go back to 1988 for a Democratic senator, Lloyd Bentsen, and to 1976 for a Democratic presidential candidate, Jimmy Carter. Since then, the Republicans have won.

Trump's image has also deteriorated in the state. In 2024, his approval rating stood at 55%; today, by contrast, that figure has fallen to 45%, while his unfavorability rating rose from 44% to 54%, completely reversing his popularity balance in Texas. Paxton is feeling the effects of this decline with a net negative personal rating of 6 points, while Talarico remains in positive territory by 6 points.

Another factor affecting Paxton is voters' priorities, with inflation at the top of the list. In fact, nearly 4 in 10 voters cite rising prices as the most decisive factor in their Senate vote, far ahead of immigration (2 in 10) and other issues such as healthcare, political polarization, or unemployment. Likewise, more than a third of voters (35%) say they feel they are losing ground financially, compared to just 16% who say they are making progress.

In the parallel race for the Texas governorship, Republican Greg Abbott maintains a slim lead of just one point over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. This is partly because 12% of Talarico's supporters would also vote for Abbott, while only 9% of Paxton's supporters would back Hinojosa. Even so, Hinojosa, like Talarico, leads among the most motivated voters who are most interested in the election.

The Hispanic vote: Key to understanding the gap

Unlike in 2024, Texas' Hispanic electorate is emerging as one of the blocs most favorable to Democrats in both races. Talarico holds a solid 18-point lead over Paxton among these voters (59% to 41%), while in the gubernatorial race, Hinojosa leads Abbott by 16 points, a lead even greater than the one Beto O'Rourke held over Abbott in 2022 (14 points).

As is the case with the Texas electorate in general, inflation is also the top concern among Hispanic voters, with nearly 4 in 10 citing it as the deciding factor in their vote, and a similar proportion saying they feel they are falling behind financially. The gap in enthusiasm between the parties is also evident in this segment, with more Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans motivated and interested in participating in the election.

The poll also found that more than half of Hispanic voters have a favorable view of Talarico (57%), Hinojosa (53%), and the Democratic Party (53%). In comparison, the majority disapprove of Paxton (56%), Abbott (56%), Trump (61%), and the Republican Party (59%). Overall, the numbers show a significant decline for the GOP among this voting bloc, as Trump won by just 1 point over Kamala Harris among Texas Hispanics (50% to 49%). This lead is not currently reflected in support for local Republican candidates.