Democrats fear polls are underestimating Trump

Hillary Clinton had better poll numbers than Kamala Harris currently has, and yet Donald Trump still made it to the White House. Similar was the situation in 2020, when the polls underestimated President Trump and it was ultimately a fairly close race.

A national poll by The Wall Street Journal in August found Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat. That slight lead contrasts quite sharply with an August 2016 CNN poll that had then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton winning by more than 10 points.

"The new averages reflect a sharp increase in support for Clinton compared to pre-convention polls. The last CNN poll, conducted before the Republican convention, showed a 4-point lead (45% for Clinton to 41% for Trump)," CNN wrote at the time.

Despite these good numbers for Clinton, her advantage in the popular vote over the Republican was only 2 percentage points, and Trump ultimately received 306 votes in the Electoral College, against just 232 for Hillary Clinton.

Now, Senate Democrats are worried that the polls are underestimating support for former President Donald Trump and a similar scenario will be repeated. Many explained that Vice President Harris' small lead in the battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for concern.

The Hill spoke with several lawmakers who expressed that, following Hillary Clinton's 2016 defeat and Donald Trump's recent performance, they are preparing for another upset on this year's election night.

They further indicated that they have serious concerns about the results released by pollsters.

"Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth," Sen. John Fetterman said.

The senators said their biggest concern is that the Democratic Party will be overconfident due to a false sense of optimism stemming from polls showing Harris with a slight lead in three crucial states that make up what is known as the "blue wall": Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Sen. Raphael Warnock, who represents the key state of Georgia, believes it is impossible to know who is ahead at this point because many polls show Harris and Trump tied or within the margin of error.

He was emphatic: "The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?"

"We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column," Warnock maintained.

Another Democratic senator, who preferred to remain anonymous, highlighted that both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden did better in the polls in 2016 and 2020. He further explained that many voters who back Donald Trump don't express their support in the polls.