Harris and Trump in a technical tie according to a new national poll

A new national poll by The Wall Street Journal revealed that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a technical tie, less than two weeks before their first debate on Sept. 10 and 68 days before the November general election.

The poll shows Harris leading Trump by just one percentage point in a head-to-head matchup, 48% to 47%, and by two points, 47% to 45%, when independent or other party candidates are included.

Both differences in favor of Harris are within the poll's margin of error, set at 2.5%.

According to the WSJ, Harris's accomplishment is that she emerged as a competitive candidate at a time when Democrats were discouraged by President Joe Biden's previous candidacy.

With her rise, the vice president changed the electoral dynamic and positioned herself as the candidate voters view most positively, according to pollsters who worked for the WSJ.

"Voters are assessing her job approval as Biden’s vice president, but they are assessing her as her own candidate for president," Michael Bocian said, a Democratic pollster who worked with Republican David Lee for the newspaper's survey. "She has emerged successfully as a candidate."

In fact, the media outlet reviewed that this is the first time Harris has led Trump in a head-to-head matchup in any poll conducted by the WSJ since April of last year.

When the vice president announced her candidacy in late July following Biden's resignation, Trump had a two-point lead over Harris.

However, even though the picture looks positive for Harris, there is a downside for Democrats: the tiny lead comes after the Democratic National Convention, which usually has a short-lived impact on the polls that then shrinks as the days go by.

According to the WSJ, if the same thing happens as with Trump after the Republican National Convention and his assassination attempt in Pennsylvania when the former president raised his popularity numbers and also improved his performance in the polls, Harris' slight lead could be diluted as the weeks go by and with a presidential debate just around the corner.

Republican David Lee remarked on this point, recalling that Democrats historically have needed a national lead above three points to win the electoral college.

"Kamala Harris has managed to tie Donald Trump nationally—and a tie nationally points to a sizable electoral win for Trump," said Lee, who recalled that Harris' good numbers come on the heels of a media honeymoon with the Democratic nominee and the DNC.

Recalling a recent case, Lee mentioned that Democrat Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by more than two percentage points in 2016 but lost in the Electoral College.

In contrast, Biden won the popular vote in 2020 by nearly five percentage points. However, although it finished 306 to 232, the electoral college was defined by thousands of votes in key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, which went in the Democrat's favor by razor-thin margins.

In this case, the WSJ national poll gathered the opinions of registered voters nationwide, so it does not present a picture of the race in any of the key states.

What the poll does suggest is that the November elections may be really even, again defined by small differences between swing states.

The positive for Democrats is that Harris vastly changed the dynamic Biden was bringing in terms of favorability ratings and also voter confidence on key issues.

For example, Harris reduced Trump's lead over Biden regarding the candidate most capable of managing the economy and inflation.

Before Biden dropped out, Trump led Harris on both issues by 20 points. The WSJ found that voters preferred the Republican over Harris by eight and five points, respectively.

In addition, an estimated 84% of people in the poll said they know enough about Harris' career and policy positions to have a strong opinion about the vice president. In that regard, 49% have a favorable opinion of her, a marked improvement from early July, when unfavorable views of Harris outnumbered positive views by 23 percentage points.

Meanwhile, 45% of respondents view Trump favorably.

However, the WSJ poll also maintains the DNC bias and positive media coverage from the campaign's first month. The situation could be reversed after next Sept. 10, when Trump and Harris will take the stage for the first time to hold a head-to-head debate.