Back to a tie in the polls: Harris catches up with Trump nationally and overtakes him in Pennsylvania

Polls again point to a tight presidential election this November. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a technical tie in the Sienna polls for the New York Times and ahead of him in Pennsylvania, a swing state in this presidential election.

These results come after the latest attack against Donald Trump, the second so far in the presidential race, however the data was collected just after the presidential debate between the two candidates. Nationally, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% and in Pennsylvania, the Democrat leads by four points.

Sienna's estimates for the New York Times do not differ much from aggregate polls collected at 270win, and updated Thursday. Nationally, the most recent aggregate polls give Harris a three-point lead over Trump.

In the state of Pennsylvania, Joe Biden won in 2020 by just 1.2 points. Similarly, new polling averages show Harris doing better nationally than in Pennsylvania. The Democratic lead is now 1.6% in the aggregate polls.

Prediction market Polymarket also gives a slight but sufficient lead to Kamala Harris over Donald Trump nationally. A 51% versus 48%. Estimates from this prediction portal have been moving Harris closer to Trump since early August, shortly after she was confirmed to run in the election to replace Biden.

In the daily variations observed in Polymarket, it can be seen that, unlike the Butler rally attack, the second attack against Trump did not have a strong effect on the victory estimates.

On the other hand, in the six key states for electoral victory, Harris leads by winning in four of them, including Pennsylvania, with 51% against 49%. With these results, Trump would only get the support of 27 delegates from Arizona and Georgia, while Harris would get the 40 from Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan.