James Carville, a Democratic strategist who worked for President Bill Clinton's campaign, warned Democrats in his podcast about the "horrifying" figures that surveys are showing regarding the youth vote, particularly among Hispanics and Blacks.
"I've been very vocal about this. It's horrifying our numbers among younger voters, particularly younger Blacks, younger Latinos … younger people of color. Particularly males."
The Hispanic and Black vote have been pillars of the Democratic Party for decades. Without the vote of the Black community, Biden could not have won the election. Although we have been witnessing the exodus of voters from these communities to the Republican Party for years, in recent months the polls show a truly worrying panorama for Democrats. "They're leaving in droves," Carville highlighted in his comments.
What do the polls say?
According to a Gallup poll, two-thirds (66%) of Black adults lean or identify as Democrats, while 19% call themselves Republicans. This difference of 47 points is the lowest in decades. In 2020, 77% of Black people identified as Democrats, while only 11% called themselves Republicans, a difference of 66 points.
According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, among voters under 35, Trump has 37% support, while Biden has 33%. That same survey shows that Trump also beats Biden with respect to Hispanic support, keeping 39% of the Hispanic vote, while Biden has 34%. Although Biden still has the advantage among Black voters, it is clear that he is rapidly losing support. In 2020, he had 87% of the support; in this survey, he has 63% of the African American vote, constituting a drop of 24 points.
Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll leaves Trump with a 6-point advantage among Hispanics, obtaining 46%, while Biden stays with 40%. Among African Americans, Trump has 23% support, and Biden has 66%.
What's going on?
For decades, the Black vote was one of the pillars of the Democratic Party, and the Hispanic vote was also a given, so what is happening now?
Carville is right when he said: "We're not going to convince under-30, under-35, 'Oh, we really built a great country for you. You're looking at this job market… I don't think you're going to buy that."
Although the large flow of Hispanics and African Americans towards the Republican Party is multifactorial, many times, what happens with these changes of loyal voters is that so many failures end up overflowing the cup, and in the end, they are so fed up that they do not care about upending tradition. It's important to highlight that according to surveys, voters' primary concern is the economy.
People get up daily, work hard to earn money, and enjoy a good life for themselves and their families. However, when despite the effort they make, their salary is not enough, and prices are still very high compared to the times of the Trump administration; for many, it is clear that this government is doing something wrong. People get upset when someone messes with their finances.
For many, the issue of Trump giving annoying speeches and not being cautious with his expressions ceases to be important when their economic stability is at stake. People can compare how their finances were before and how they are now. Unfortunately, Blacks and Hispanics have large percentages of people in the middle and lower classes who are greatly affected by inflation and economic problems, and that can explain, to a large extent, particularly among those groups, the discontent with the Democratic party.
