Tensions between Russia and NATO escalate in the Baltic following new air and maritime incidents
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over Lithuania for the first time, while Denmark reported that a Russian frigate fired flares at one of its military helicopters. These incidents come amid an increase in Russian attacks on Ukraine and European warnings about possible hybrid operations by Moscow.
A police officer extinguishing a fire at a gas station following an attack by Russian drones
Tensions between Russia and NATO countries rose again in the Baltic Sea following two incidents that occurred almost simultaneously: the shooting down of a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace and the firing of flares from a Russian frigate at a Danish military helicopter.
The incident in Lithuania occurred early Tuesday morning, when fighter jets participating in NATO's air policing mission intercepted and shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle that had violated the Baltic country's airspace.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda confirmed the operation and highlighted the swift response by allied forces. The identity and exact origin of the drone have not yet been officially established. Preliminary data cited by Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT suggest, however, that it may have entered from neighboring Belarus, a close ally of Moscow.
Reuters reported, citing Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center, that an Italian fighter jet deployed as part of the NATO mission shot down the drone shortly after midnight.
The wreckage fell in an area of the Kaunas region, with no casualties reported.
The incident comes after a week of intense air activity in the area. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense reported that between Sept. 7 and 13, NATO fighter jets had to take off on several occasions to identify and escort aircraft, including Russian Su-35S fighters, MiG-31s and a Tu-134 flying between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad. Some were operating without transponders or flight plans.
A Russian frigate fires flares at a Danish helicopter
Hours earlier, another incident had heightened tensions further west in the Baltic Sea.
The Danish Armed Forces reported that a Russian frigate fired two flares at a Danish Air Force Fennec helicopter that was on a routine mission to photograph the ship in international waters off Gedser.
One of the flares passed within a short distance of the helicopter, according to the official statement from the Danish Armed Forces. Authorities noted that this type of pyrotechnic device is typically used as a warning signal at sea.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the Russian action "reckless" and argued that such actions are intended to intimidate and divide Western allies.
Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen called the incident "completely unacceptable" and summoned the Russian ambassador in Copenhagen to demand an explanation. Reuters confirmed that the frigate fired the two flares while the helicopter was over international waters.
Europe warns of growing Russian pressure
In recent months, Moscow has intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian territory, including civilian targets and energy, water and heating infrastructure, according to Ukrainian authorities and experts consulted by AFP.
At the same time, several European governments have denounced sabotage, espionage and other hybrid actions that they attribute to Russian intelligence services.
What are European governments saying?
Denmark raised its alert level in early September. Its security and intelligence service, PET, stated that Russian intelligence services were "actively preparing" acts of sabotage against companies in the Danish defense industry, some of which are involved in providing military support to Kyiv.
The head of counterintelligence at PET, Emil Græsholm, stated that attempts to recruit Danish citizens via social media and digital platforms to obtain photographs and information about facilities and infrastructure had been identified. Moscow rejected these accusations and claimed that Copenhagen had not presented sufficient evidence.
Germany has also blamed Russia for a recent attempted attack using a drone loaded with explosives against Ukrainian aircraft at the Leipzig/Halle airport, an incident that intensified the European debate on how to respond to so-called "gray zone" operations. Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in such actions.
A recent analysis by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), affiliated with CESEDEN, specifically warns of a growing convergence between the war in Ukraine, Russian activity in the gray zone over European territory, and the deterrence between Moscow and NATO, although no direct military conflict has yet occurred between Russia and the Alliance.
The incidents in Lithuania and Denmark thus once again position the Baltic region as one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the confrontation between Russia and the West, at a time when any miscalculation could rapidly escalate tensions between Moscow and NATO members.
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