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ANALYSIS

India-Pakistan conflict: Accusations exchanged and fears of escalation

Islamabad claims that more than thirty were killed, including two children, and many others were wounded in the attacks, while New Delhi insists that the missiles were aimed at destroying nine terrorist training camps.

Plumes of smoke after Pakistani artillery hit in the border area with India.

Plumes of smoke after Pakistani artillery hit in the border area with India.AFP

The armed standoff between India and Pakistan continues to escalate. Authorities in Islamabad have raised the death toll from a missile attack by its neighbor to at least 26, including two children, and claimed to have shot down five enemy military aircraft that entered its airspace. Meanwhile, New Delhi denounced artillery fire from the Pakistani side, which resulted in at least 12 deaths in towns along the border. India also claimed that its strikes, fired last Tuesday, destroyed nine terrorist training camps, from which, according to Indian intelligence, the attackers responsible for last month's Kashmir assault emerged.

Following the terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir, the two countries exchanged threats and gunfire in the region until late Tuesday night into Wednesday. At that point, the Indian government announced "precision air strikes" in Pakistani Kashmir and the border state of Punjab. The strikes targeted "nine terrorist camps" and were carried out "with the intention of minimizing damage" to infrastructure and civilian lives.

Damage to a dam in Pakistan

However, Pakistani army spokesman Ahmed Chaudhry claimed that the Indian bombing had killed "at least 26 innocent civilians," including "two three-year-old children." Authorities in Islamabad also reported an attack on the Neelum-Jhelum dam and hydroelectric plant in Pakistani Kashmir, which suffered severe damage.

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif accused India’s prime minister, Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, of launching these attacks to "boost" his domestic popularity. However, he asserted that Pakistan had already responded to the strikes. "The retaliation has already begun," he told AFP. "It won’t be long before we even the score," he warned.

Modi wants to stop water from rivers to Pakistan

Military spokesman Chaudhry claimed that Pakistani forces had shot down five Indian fighter jets and a drone in Indian airspace. "The Pakistani army, in its defense and response to the enemy, shot down five aircraft and a fighter drone. They attacked Pakistan," Ahmed Chaudhry stated. He added that the downed aircraft included "three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su aircraft."

The conflict is not confined to the military front. Hours before the bombings, Modi announced that his administration would halt the flow of water from Indian rivers into Pakistan. In response, Islamabad stated that it would consider such a move "an act of war."

Indian fighter plane wreckage in Kashmir

Indian fighter plane wreckage in KashmirZUMAPRESS.com/Cordon Press.

Indiscriminate artillery fire in Kashmir

Shortly after the shelling, the Indian army accused opposing forces of launching "indiscriminate" artillery fire along the Line of Control, the de facto border that divides Kashmir.

"We woke up when we heard the sound of gunfire," Farooq, a resident of the border town of Poonch, told the Press Trust of India news agency. "I saw shells raining down," he said from his hospital bed, his head bandaged.

Indian authorities told AFP that gunfire from Pakistan killed at least 12 people and wounded 38 in the town. From the other side of the border, authorities assured that with those clashes the number of civilians killed had risen from 26 to 31, and the number of wounded to 57.

A strong military response from India to the April 22 attack, which its security forces attribute to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) jihadist group, had been anticipated for days.

A "cowardly" and "unprovoked" attack that "will not go unpunished"

The organization, designated as a terrorist group by the UN, is suspected of carrying out the 2008 attacks in Mumbai that left 166 people dead. While no one has claimed responsibility for the recent attack in the tourist resort of Pahalgam, New Delhi has blamed Islamabad, which denies the accusation and calls for an independent investigation.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the Indian attack was "cowardly" and "unprovoked." "This heinous act of aggression will not go unpunished," he said.

Major world powers call for de-escalation and offer to mediate

The two major world powers, the United States and China, called for restraint from both sides. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged New Delhi and Islamabad to "defuse the situation and prevent further escalation."

Meanwhile, Beijing called for an end to the rising tensions: "We call on both India and Pakistan to prioritize peace and stability, remain calm, and avoid actions that could further complicate the situation," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian. "We are willing to work together with the international community and continue playing a constructive role in easing the current tensions."

The United Kingdom also offered to mediate, with Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds stating: "Our message would be that we are a friend, a partner to both countries. We stand ready to support both countries. Both have a huge interest in regional stability, in dialogue, in de-escalation and anything we can do to support that." 

In addition, the UN, through spokesman Stéphane Dujarric for Secretary-General António Guterres, warned of the global risks posed by the conflict: "The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan," he said.

Simulations throughout India

Amid escalating tensions, Indian civilians participated in security drills across more than 200 districts. Ordered prior to the attack, these drills represent a rare move not seen in decades.

Air drills began early Wednesday in various regions, with authorities urging citizens to stay calm and follow security instructions. Local leaders were also instructed to implement blackout protocols.

Schools and universities also participated in the drills. The Assam state government shared images from the exercises across 15 of its districts:

As the exercises were taking place, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Indian intelligence services believed further attacks against his country were "impending." Misri defended that India had stood up for its right and acted against international terrorism.

The attacks, he said, were "measured, non-escalatory, proportionate and responsible."

The Pakistani defense minister's view was very different: "This is a clear-cut violation, and an invitation to expand the conflict and maybe convert it into something much more wider and much more dangerous for the region." In remarks picked up by CNN, Khawaja Muhammad Asif accused the neighboring country of having "crossed an international boundary."

Asif claimed Pakistan was "prepared for an all-out war." "We can’t be caught with our guards down." Meanwhile, the first images of funerals of victims of the recent bombings began to circulate on social media.

U.S. updates its recommendations for citizens in both countries

"We advise U.S. citizens to depart areas of active conflict if they can safely do so, or to shelter in place," the U.S. Mission to Pakistan stated on Wednesday.

The delegation also reiterated its recommendation against traveling to the border area between the two countries and the Line of Control, which divides Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani-controlled regions, "due to terrorism and the potential for armed conflict."

He also emphasized that Washington had urged citizens to "reconsider" any travel to Pakistan and acknowledged the ongoing airspace closures and flight cancellations.

For Americans on the other side of the border, they warned of potential flight disruptions. They also advised against traveling to the Jammu and Kashmir region and urged citizens to stay informed through official channels and media updates.

They also warned Americans on the other side of the border about potential flight disruptions.

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