New warning sign for Trump: Democrats widen their lead in the generic ballot and on key issues

A new poll by the New York Times/Siena among likely voters painted an unfavorable picture for Donald Trump and the Republican Party less than 50 days before the midterm elections. The poll found that Democrats lead Republicans on the overall ballot and on the issues that most concern voters.

The poll, released on Tuesday, September 15, was conducted between September 8 and 13. According to its findings, Republicans trail Democrats by eight percentage points in the general election for Congress. The gender gap remained, with Republicans leading among men by four points and Democrats leading among women by 19 points.

When asked about the main reason they wanted Democrats to regain control of Congress, "opposition to Trump" was the most common response at 21%.

The poll also showed that likely voters trust Democrats more to handle the country's major issues. For example, Democrats lead Republicans by seven points on the economy, eight points on the cost of living, ten points on the deficit, seven points on immigration, seven points on foreign wars, and twenty-four points on health care. The exception was artificial intelligence, where Republicans maintain a two-point lead.

In addition, the Republican Party was perceived as more extreme (eight points more than Democrats), more elitist (ten points more), and more corrupt (fourteen points more).

Regarding President Trump's performance, the poll found that 59% disapprove of his job performance, while 38% approve. Disapproval was even higher among independent voters, reaching 69%. Furthermore, he was disapproved of for his handling of key issues such as the economy, immigration, tariffs, the war with Iran, and the cost of living.

Focusing on the economy, only 14% of likely voters said the economy was better than a year ago, representing a drop from the 31% recorded in January 2026. Among Republicans, only 29% believed the economy was better than the previous year, while in January that figure stood at 72%.

"Even Mr. Trump’s most loyal and durable demographic base — white voters without college degrees — disapproved of the president’s handling of the cost of living by a wide 21-percentage point margin," noted the NYT.

Other striking findings from the poll were that likely voters said they would prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes aid to Israel and that 60% oppose the construction of new data centers for the development of artificial intelligence.