Poll shift ahead of midterms: Republicans take the lead among likely voters

Ahead of the midterm elections, the Republican Party leads the Democratic Party on the general ballot among likely voters. This is according to the latest poll by Harvard CAPS-Harris. It is the first time since October 2025 that Republicans have led Democrats among likely voters in a poll by this firm.

Polls of likely voters tend to be more accurate in predicting election outcomes because they focus on citizens who are most likely to actually cast a ballot, rather than including all registered voters.

According to the poll results, Republicans lead Democrats on the general ballot among this group by two percentage points, 51% to 49%. The poll also shows that the race is far from decided. Only 46% of voters say they have decided how they will vote in the November election, while 27% say they lean toward certain candidates, though they could still change their minds.

President Donald Trump's approval rating reached its highest level since February of this year. The president entered August with a 44% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating. His approval rating improved among likely voters, with 48% viewing him favorably and 51% unfavorably. Another important finding for Trump is that the percentage of likely voters who believe the United States is on the right track has also increased.

In addition, the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll showed that the Republican Party saw its positive image rise by two percentage points, from 43% in July to 45% in August. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party saw its positive image rise by four points, from 43% to 47%.

"Voters are feeling slightly more optimistic across the board, with Trump, Democratic and GOP approval on the up. They recognize the weight of the upcoming midterm elections and want to hear from their politicians on inflation, fraud and AI," said Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll and president and CEO of Stagwell.

Among the country's most recognizable politicians, only two received a higher positive rating than negative one: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr..