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ANALYSIS.

A shutdown with more losers than victors

Trump and the Republicans claim victory in a partisan struggle that has also damaged their image, cost taxpayers more than $14 billion, created widespread problems—especially to federal employees—and has shattered the Democratic Party, split in two by the "betrayal" of 8 senators and 6 representatives.

Trump, at the moment of signing the law ending the shutdown.

Trump, at the moment of signing the law ending the shutdown.AFP

Israel Duro
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The longest shutdown in history is already just that: history. A painful chapter and evidence of the deep division and political tension the country is experiencing. Forty-three days that have cost more than $14 billion to taxpayers and has left big losers, starting with millions of citizens affected by the paralysis of public services and benefits, followed by a Democratic Party broken in half and ending with a Donald Trump and a GOP that, despite perceiving themselves as victors, didn’t emerge unscathed.

Both parties have been perceived by voters as the culprits of the situation. Although most polls point more toward the president and conservatives, every day more and more fingers were pointing toward the Democrats, especially Chuck Schumer and the more radical wing of the blue formation in the Senate.

Indeed, in the end even left-wing media outlets like Axios accused the upper house minority leader of maintaining the shutdown by torpedoing deals by several moderate congressional Democrats with the GOP to re-fund the government. And that, even though the cuts were already affecting SNAP and millions of passengers' flights.

A broken Democratic party: Schumer, on the wire

The final resolution of the crisis, with the defection of eight Democratic senators triggered a political earthquake that may take Schumer himself. Ironically, his stubbornness in prolonging the government shutdown over the suffering of citizens for fear of suffering a situation as harsh as the one he experienced for avoiding the shutdown above may be the cause of his ultimate downfall.

Although they finally managed to hold the line and get their bill to see the light of day, the Republican Party has not emerged unscathed from the brawl either. In addition to the perception by much of the public that they are to blame for the arm wrestling, internal friction has been stoked by the way the process has been handled, especially with Mike Johnson's decision to shut down the House of Representatives until there was agreement.

The cost of the Shutdown

Although there is still no definitive estimate on the cost of the shutdown to the economy, the Government Budget Office has estimated some $14 billion in lost economic growth.

To this will have to be added the damages to airlines from canceled and delayed flights, the drop in purchases due to the uncertainty, and the price of all public formalities that were postponed during the 43 days of the shutdown. According to Moody's, the most pessimistic, total impact on the economy has been about $30 billion for each week of the shutdown.

Estimates suggest that during the shutdown the Administration has suspended the disbursement of more than $24 billion in federal spending on goods and services. These expenses, after the first 30 days, were extended to government suppliers and contractors.

In addition, the shutdown also entailed the freezing of some $2.5 billion in loans to some 4,800 small businesses by the Small Business Administration, money that these companies routinely use even for day-to-day operations and payments. This may be reflected in layoffs in the next employment statistics.

Federal employees breathe: they will collect back pay and keep their jobs

Of particular note is the plight of more than a million federal employees. Without pay and without jobs during this time, and with the uncertainty of whether they would finally be paid this period, as Trump threatened. Finally, the agreement provides for immediate relief from its financial situation, as well as the repeal of the thousands of layoffs decreed by the Administration, in addition to a armor so that no layoffs will occur until at least the end of January.

The law approved by Congress and signed by the president also includes that the officials will return to their posts immediately.

The plight of SNAP recipients

Also notable has been the drama of families who rely on the SNAP to sustain themselves, and which ran out of funds as of Nov. 1. Although the Administration mobilized emergency funds to reach the majority, it was not 100%. The Democratic attempt to obtain via the courts the disbursement of 100% of the cost remained in the Supreme Court.

The shutdown ended, its consequences begin

Finally, eight Democratic senators broke Democratic unity by putting the plight of citizens before party. The agreement reached in the Upper House and subsequently endorsed by the Lower House was finally sanctioned by the president, ending a sad chapter in the country's history.

However, the consequences, both political, economic and social of the shutdown have only begun.

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