Could Sotomayor resign from the Supreme Court before Trump takes office? Democrats have already started lobbying

In September 2020, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died unexpectedly at age 86, leaving a vacancy on the Supreme Court just months before the 2020 presidential election. Taking advantage of Republicans controlling the White House and Senate, Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell hurried to nominate Amy Coney Barrett, who was confirmed in October to seal a 6-3 conservative majority on the nation's highest court.

Four years later, with Trump as president-elect and a new Republican majority in the upper chamber taking effect Jan. 3, 2025, Democrats fear another Bader Ginsburg during Trump's second presidency. For this reason, pressure has begun for Sonia Sotomayor to resign and allow her seat to be filled with a Democrat before it is too late.

While it may seem like some sort of unrealistic fantasy that would be unprecedented, Politico reported that talks are already underway: "This isn’t simply some flight of fancy happening among progressive activists online. It’s a conversation members of the Senate are actively engaged in."

"For Democrats, this is a time of great tension"

Sotomayor, 70, is the oldest progressive justice on the Supreme Court. She is followed by Elena Kagan (64) and the recently confirmed Ketanji Brown Jackson, at 54.

With the Ginsburg episode still fresh, Politico confirmed that some members of the Senate have begun talks about the possibility that Sotomayor will indeed resign in the coming weeks.

These talks immediately presented two problems: the recognition that it is a risky move and that, for now, no senator seems willing to publicly begin a lobbying campaign.

"The conversations have gone far enough that a possible replacement has been bandied about: D.C. Circuit Judge Michelle Childs, who was on President Joe Biden's Supreme Court short list," Politico added.

In addition to the risk of the maneuver, timing would be a key variable in this election. Democrats would have to convince her to retire sooner rather than later so that they have a halfway reasonable time to nominate her replacement and advance their name in the Senate.

It would also be unclear whether they would have the support of all Democrats in the upper chamber, along with the independents Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who already know what it's like to go against Chuck Schumer's agenda.

Kamala Harris to the Supreme Court?

In mid-2023, there was brief speculation that the White House might try to convince Kamala Harris to be nominated to the Supreme Court in order to get her off the 2024 presidential ticket.

Bakari Sellers, a former state representative in South Carolina, suggested on CNN that President Biden should use these last two months to be as "consequential" as possible. Indeed, he spoke of the possibility of nominating Harris to the highest court in the land.

"You know, Judge Sotomayor has been a more than capable judge. I know she may have some personal issues to deal with while she's in office, but I don't want Justice Sotomayor to be another Ruth Bader Ginsburg in terms of staying in office too long," Sellers continued.