The outlook heading into the midterms: Democrats fall to an all-time low in favorable image, and young voters pull away from Republicans

Democrats and Republicans are experiencing a complex electoral moment ahead of the midterm elections of 2026. According to a recent Fox News poll, the Democratic Party's image fell to an all-time low in terms of favorability. However, it still holds a sizable lead over the Republican Party for the upcoming election, something that is largely due to young voters.

According to the conservative network's poll, 44% of voters have a favorable view of the Republican Party, while 54% have an unfavorable view for a net rating of -10. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has a favorable image of 41% and an unfavorable perception of 56%, yielding a net rating of -15.

This is the first time in a decade that Republicans have a more favorable image than Democrats. Last summer, the situation was the complete opposite: Republicans registered a negative image of 14 points, while Democrats registered only 6 points. The number practically reversed.

However, despite this data, Democrats still have an advantage over Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.

According to the poll, if the midterm elections were held today, voters would opt for the Democratic candidate in their district by a 7-point lead over the Republican (49% vs. 42%).

This margin is similar to that observed in April 2017, during Donald Trump's first term (47% vs. 42%).

Experts say this Democratic advantage is logical since parties that are in opposition usually do well in midterm elections, especially in the polls.

"The higher favorable rating for the Republican Party is entirely due to Democrats feeling less favorable toward their party than Republicans do toward theirs," Democrat Chris Anderson, who conducted the poll along with Republican Daron Shaw, told Fox News. "This in and of itself is unlikely to translate into midterm success for the GOP, as Democrats say they will almost universally vote for their party and Independents favor the Democrats as well."

Moreover, another encouraging statistic for Democrats is that young voters continue to favor them broadly. The poll found that the Republican congressional candidate is performing worse than Trump among the young electorate: whereas in 2024, 47% of those under 30 voted for President Trump, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis, today only 33% support Republicans, a fourteen-point drop.

In addition, today, young people show a slightly more favorable perception of the Democratic Party (+2 points: 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable), in contrast to last July, when a negative opinion predominated by 6 points. Regarding the Republican Party, its image remains largely unfavorable, with a 20-point gap (38% favorable and 58% unfavorable), similar to the 40-60% recorded in July 2024.

"The bad news for the Republicans is the age gap is back in these data," Republican pollster Daron Shaw warned. "The good news is this is the most volatile group in the electorate: they tend not to show up for midterm elections and, when they do, they are particularly responsive to short-term forces."