Betting markets give Trump more chances to win thanks to three key states

Donald Trump returned to the lead in betting markets on the presidential election and gained the biggest gap over Kamala Harris since late July. The Republican candidate recently returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, and is expected to continue campaigning in key states.

According to the popular Polymarket platform, where agents put their money and bets on who they think will win the November election, Trump is the current favorite. As of October seven, the odds are 56% that he will prevail over Harris, a figure that is his highest peak on this platform since last July 31.

As for Trump's hypothetical path to 270 electors, it would consist of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Indeed, according to the platform, Trump has a 64% chance of winning Georgia, a 60% chance of winning North Carolina and a 56% chance of winning Pennsylvania, his highest number since early September in that state.

These numbers mark a trend in favor of the former president which has not been seen for some time. One of the first to react to the numbers was consultant Frank Luntz. "This forecast (based on made bets, not polls) was Harris + 4 just two weeks ago," he wrote on his X account.

Trump and an encouraging stat in Pennsylvania heading into the election

Michael Pruser, who conducts turnout and voter registration data analysis at Decision Desk HQ, recently revealed that the Republican Party nearly doubled the Democrats in registered voters in Pennsylvania during the month of September.

According to its data, the GOP registered 60,710 new voters versus 35,854 new Democratic registered voters.

"For this report, approximately 65% of the net gain for Republicans comes from new registrations. Thirty percent comes from party switches and the rest from minor voter retention," the specialist explained.