GOP's bid to oust Jon Tester from the Senate: a businessman and retired Navy SEAL capable of self-funding his campaign

Steve Daines (R-MT), current chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), is on a mission to get more Republicans elected to the Senate in 2024 and retain those already there. With the Upper House at 51-49 in favor of the Democrats, he will need to flip at least two seats, and among those targeted are Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Montana. He has convinced his ideal candidate to work towards this goal in Montana.

Daines’ strategy in recruiting candidates for the next election cycle is based on two issues: that they have a chance of winning a general election and are capable of self-financing their campaigns. According to his criteria, Tim Sheehy meets both of these requirements.

A former Navy SEAL who completed over 200 missions in Iraq, Afghanistan, South America and U.S. Pacific Command, Sheehy is CEO of Brider Aerospace, a Montana-based provider of wildfire surveillance and aerial fire suppression services.

“From inflation to our border to our deficit, America is ready for change. And I think it’s time for a new generation of leaders to step up. Leaders who understand servant leadership, which is putting the mission before yourself, and leaders who understand how to get results,” said the candidate in one of his first interviews.

While in the army, he earned multiple combat decorations, including the Bronze Star and the Purple Heart. The 37-year-old also asserted that “Americans feel underrepresented” and that “they are tired of a government that they don’t feel is working for them.”

“Tim Sheehy is a decorated veteran, successful businessman, and a great Montanan. I could not be happier that he has decided to enter the Montana Senate race”, celebrated Daines said in a statement about Sheehy’s candidacy. However, he stopped short of endorsing him.

Sheehy is very close to Congressman Ryan Zinke (R), who had been named as a potential candidate, although that seems unlikely now that the businessman has entered the race. “If Tim were to participate in the race, he would be formidable. He would be a great opponent against Tester,” he said in mid-March.

As for the primary, his strongest challenger could be Matt Rosendale (R), who already lost to the Democratic senator in 2018. Although he has not yet entered the race, he is expected to do so soon. The congressman didn’t wait long and already accused Sheehy of being the Republican establishment candidate.

“Now Washington has two candidates - Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester - who will protect the D.C. cartel,” Rosendale said. “I believe that Montanans are tired of business as usual and will reject the McConnell-Biden Establishment,” he said.

The challenge of defeating Jon Tester

The current senator came to the Upper House in 2006 and has habitually turned Montana blue every four years since. However, in 2024, he will have the extra difficulty of coinciding with a presidential election. Donald Trump carried Montana in 2020 by a 16 percentage point margin, so he will need to count on a significant number of people splitting their vote: voting blue for the Senate and red for the White House.

A farmer and former music teacher, Tester won re-election in 2012 and increased his lead margin, which he stretched further in his third race in 2018. According to GovTrack, he is the fourth most moderate Democrat in the Upper House, behind only Joe Manchin, Raphael Warnock and Maggie Hassan.

The incumbent senator is the most popular among his fellow Democrats who will seek re-election in 2024. According to Morning Consult, he has a 60% positive and 30% negative image, which also places him as the eighth most popular member of the Senate.