The black vote-Democratic Party tandem is beginning to crack. Support from this community, key to Joe Biden's 2020 win, has dropped considerably, according to a CNN poll.
Democrats right now have 74% voting intention among black voters, according to the poll. It may sound like a lot, but there is a noticeable drop from the 2020 data. This was highlighted by Harry Enten, CNN polling expert: "Compare 74% with the final poll for 2020 president and 2018 Congress. In 2020 it was 84% and 85% in 2018. So you can see clearly here that there is less support for Democratic congressional candidates among African-Americans."
This 10-point drop is being exploited by the Republican Party, which has managed to reach 12% of people in this minority willing to vote for them. "The 12%, it's not exactly high, but it's actually the highest mark. It was 9% in 2020, 9% in 2018. So basically, what was previously a 75, 76-point margin is now down to the low 60s."
President's popularity sinks for black community
According to Erten, the causes of this collapse lies in the discontent of African Americans with the management of the Biden Administration. "Take a look at Joe Biden's approval rating among black adults. If you go back from January to June 2021 ... it was 87%, basically the same as he got in the 2020 election. But look at that rating now, in August and September 2022, it has dropped to 64%.", he analyzes.
Erten acknowledged that the president's loss of popularity is widespread among all Americans, but "it has only dropped between 10 and 15 points." Nothing to do "even closely" with the collapse of 23 points. "So there's a disproportionate drop in Joe Biden's approval rating among African Americans. And I think that's what's driving Democrats running for Congress to get a significantly smaller margin than we're used to seeing," he insisted.
Georgia, another touchstone
This phenomenon is also occurring in Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams wants to challenge Governor Brian Kemp for office. "Among African-American voters, Stacey Abrams lead has actually dropped from 79 points in the last polls of 2018 to 67 points now," Enten said.
The data is especially important, since "in Georgia, this key state where black voters make up such a large portion of the electorate, you're seeing, again, more movement among black voters away from the Democratic Party than you're seeing among voters in general," he explained.
