The presidential elections are approaching, and the race to the White House is increasingly tight. On November 5, Americans will elect their next president, but for right now, the most likely scenario is that we will once again have a showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
While Trump has become a political phenomenon that many still cannot understand, rising in the polls as investigations against him increase, discontent with President Biden escalates. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll, 48% of Democratic voters agree with replacing President Biden with another candidate. Additionally, Biden is holding steady at one of his highest points of disapproval, as currently, 58% of Americans disapprove of his management.
1- Trump has a slight advantage over President Biden
According to the latest Emerson College poll, former President Trump has a slight lead over President Biden, with 45% of voters backing him, 44% voting for Biden, and 11% undecided voters. When asking about possible scenarios in which Trump faces other Democrats, such as Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom, Trump wins in all scenarios.
Meanwhile, the latest Quinnipiac University poll says that in a possible confrontation between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden would have a slight advantage, obtaining 49% of the votes, while the Republican would get 45%. Meanwhile, the independent vote is divided, with 44% supporting Biden while 42% would vote for Trump.
Now, if we look at the average of the results of the latest surveys, carried out by The Economist, Trump surpasses Biden with an average voting intention of 46%, while Biden remains at 44%.
2- What is happening in the swing states?
According to the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, Trump beats Biden in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. These states, considered "swing" states because the last elections were won by a margin of three points or less, will largely determine the results of the presidential elections in November.
In North Carolina, Trump has a nine-point lead over Biden, achieving 50% of the vote, while the Democratic president has 41%. In Pennsylvania, Trump has 49% and Biden 43%, giving the Republican a six-point lead. In Nevada, Trump's advantage is also six points; he has 48% of the votes, compared to 42% for Biden. The same advantage holds in Georgia, where the Republican gets 49% and Biden gets 43%. In Arizona, also with a six-point advantage, Trump has 49% of the votes compared to 43% for Biden. In Wisconsin, Trump remains with 46% compared to Biden's 42%, giving him a four-point lead. Finally, in Michigan, Trump obtains 46% and Biden 44%, with a two-point advantage for the Republican.
3- The issues that most concern Americans
In recent weeks, more and more polls show immigration as the primary concern of Americans. Immigration has not been at the top of voters' list of concerns since 2019, but as the crisis at the southern border worsens, the issue has displaced the economy as the top concern.
In the latest Gallup poll, 28% of Americans said immigration is their top concern, an eight-point jump from the January poll, which reflected 20% of Americans choosing immigration as their top concern. In second place is the "government" option, with 20%. In third and fourth place are economy and inflation, with 12% and 11% respectively.
Also, a Harvard CAPS-Harris survey published at the end of January shows 35% choosing immigration as their main concern, very close to 32% choosing inflation as the issue of most concern. In third place is "economy and jobs" with 25%.
Although more and more polls show that immigration is at the top of Americans' concerns, several details must be considered. The first thing is that if all the options related to the economy are added, the economic aspect remains the primary concern. For example, in the Gallup survey, the sum of all the economic problems mentioned by respondents gives a result of 30%, which includes economy, inflation, deficit, taxes and unemployment. So, the economy continues to be of great concern to Americans, although, when broken down into different factors, the percentages are reduced compared to that obtained by immigration alone.
The other critical issue is to analyze the "concern" depending on the voter's political affiliation. According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, which allows us to see the concerns according to the party, it is found that although immigration in general is chosen by 18% of Americans as the main concern, only 6% of Democrats chose it as the main problem, while the percentage for Republicans is 33%, and among independents, it was selected by 18%.
This poll by Reuters/Ipsos has a new factor at play, a category that has not been included in other polls before, the option of "political extremism or threats to democracy," which curiously achieves first place overall, with 21%, but particularly among Democrats it achieved 37%, being their primary concern. This option reaches 11% among Republicans, achieving third place among the issues that most concern voters of that party. Republicans' first concern is immigration at 33% and then the economy at 23%.
