The Congressional Budget Office estimates 860,000 immigrants slipped past Border Patrol in 2023

The federal agency also estimates that the immigration trend will stagnate after the elections and return to 2016 numbers ​​due to several factors.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a federal agency that assists the Capitol with independent analysis and reports, warned that the number of immigrants released by the Biden administration, which is increasing exponentially, is due to the "use of probation" or "orders to appear before an immigration judge."

According to the data provided by this agency, the number of net immigrants - those who entered minus those who left the country - was 1.1 million in 2021, 2.6 million in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. More immigrants came into the country in those two years than the total from 2010 to 2019.

According to the CBO report, during fiscal year 2023, border authorities released 1.1 million illegal immigrants after they were detained or passed through federal government agencies. The office estimates that virtually all of those individuals who were released via probation or an order to appear before a judge came into the country through the southern border.

This is a situation almost exclusive to the south, according to the report. Fewer than 10,000 people were treated in the same way when they illegally crossed the country's northern border or when they came in via the coast and were intercepted by federal border authorities.

In addition to these arrivals, there is another group of immigrants who came into the country and were not caught by the authorities. According to the CBO, there were around 860,000 in 2023. Initially, the Department of Homeland Security and the Border Patrol estimated this number at 750,000. However, shortly after they added that they had underestimated that figure. The CBO believes that the real number may be 15% higher than the Biden administration's first estimate.

Back to normal after 2024

The CBO also offers some predictions on immigration trends through 2054. According to the data managed by the agency, net immigration in the country should stagnate starting in 2024 and remain that way until 2026. From that last year onwards, it is predicted to drop until it reaches 2016 numbers. It will likely remain stable until 2054 with only a slight increase.

According to the CBO, the decline in net immigration between 2024 and 2026 could be due to anything from changes in "the decisions of foreigners to enter or leave the United States" to "changes in the actions of the administration or immigration judges," as well as a combination of these changes.