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India is on track to become the world's fourth largest economy

India’s recent growth is driven by its human capital and its ambition to become a manufacturing hub.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Cordon Press.

Carlos Dominguez
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India is on track to become the fourth-largest economy in the world. In 2014, it ranked 10th, but it now stands ready to surpass Japan.

"We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak ... and this is not my data. It's IMF data," said B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, CEO of think tank state Niti Aayog, during a press conference reported by CNBC.

"India today is bigger than Japan," Subrahmanyam said, adding that in a few years, the country is expected to surpass Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy—behind only the United States and China.

However, according to CNBC, the IMF data forecasts that India’s economy will reach $4.187 trillion by 2025, slightly edging out Japan’s projected $4.186 trillion. While it hasn’t surpassed Japan just yet, India is on track to become the world’s fourth-largest economy—behind Germany, China, and the United States.

According to Malcolm Dorson, senior portfolio manager at Global X ETFs, India’s “long-term structural dynamism” stems from a better-educated younger population, which is driving growth in the country’s technology and services sectors.

Human capital, combined with India’s ambition to become a manufacturing hub, is key to understanding the country’s recent growth.

Dorson also sees “tactical opportunities” in falling oil prices and rising gold prices, noting that India imports around 80% of its energy and that roughly 20% of households save in physical gold.

According to CNBC, Dorson believes that India securing a spot among the world’s top four economies by GDP “is a done deal.”

Structural differences between India and Japan

Although India is on track to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, there remains a “huge disconnect in living standards and social, economic, and physical infrastructure between India and Japan,” said Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist at TS Lombard.

India’s current GDP per capita is $2,880—just a fraction of Japan’s $33,960—according to IMF data.
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