California is bracing for a historic El Niño event that could cause billions in losses

California is preparing to face one of the most intense episodes of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which could result in economic losses of billions of dollars during the winter of 2026–2027, according to experts consulted by The Center Square in a report published by Just the News.

The phenomenon, considered potentially historic due to its intensity, threatens to cause heavy rains, coastal flooding, landslides and damage to roads, homes and agricultural areas.

Lilian Thaoxaochay, a disaster resilience policy advisor at the University of California, explained to The Center Square that the El Niño event recorded during the winter of 2023–2024 caused an estimated $9 billion to $11 billion in damage. The expert believes that this season's losses could reach similar figures, although there is still no official estimate.

Why is this phenomenon such a cause for concern?

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs when the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm above their usual temperatures. This change alters atmospheric circulation patterns and can affect rainfall and temperatures in different regions of the planet.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, the phenomenon continues to strengthen, and there is an 83% or higher probability that it will reach strong or very strong intensity during the period from January through March 2027.

In California, one of the main risks is increased rainfall, which can lead to flooding, coastal erosion and landslides. However, meteorologists warn that an intense El Niño event does not necessarily guarantee exceptional rainfall in all regions.

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Newsom activates emergency measures

California Governor, Gavin Newsom, has promoted a series of preventive measures to reduce potential damage. According to an official statement from his administration, authorities have distributed emergency supplies, prepared millions of sandbags and stepped up monitoring of levees, drainage systems and water infrastructure.

In addition, on Oct. 27, Newsom issued an executive order to facilitate efforts to prevent flooding, erosion and landslides, especially in vulnerable areas.

One area of concern is Highway 1 along the coast near Big Sur, where repairs, primarily due to landslides, have cost approximately $312 million between 2020 and 2026, according to figures cited by The Center Square.

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The impact could be felt in the economy

Experts warn that the damage would not be limited to infrastructure. Flooding could also affect crops, drive up the prices of certain foods, harm tourism and increase public spending for recovery.

Kristina Dahl, vice president of science at Climate Central, noted that during the intense El Niño event of 1997–1998 food prices in the United States rose by 5% to 8%, partly due to the storms and floods that hit California, according to statements reported by The Center Square.

Despite the warnings, the California government has not yet released an official estimate of the economic cost the phenomenon could entail. Authorities insist that preventive measures aim to mitigate the consequences before the season's most intense storms strike.

According to the state's official preparedness guidelines, residents should stay alert to weather alerts, identify areas prone to flooding and have evacuation plans in place.

Although experts agree that California faces a season of high climate risk, the extent of the damage will depend on the intensity, frequency and location of the storms that develop over the coming months.