Is one of the most intense El Niño events in history about to hit?

The El Niño climate phenomenon has strengthened over the past month and is highly likely to become one of the most intense episodes on record, according to the latest update from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the United States.

The agency reported that there is an 81% probability that between October and December 2026, a "very strong" El Niño event will develop between October and December 2026, a category corresponding to anomalies of at least 35.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the reference index, which would place it among the largest on record since 1950.

In addition, the CPC estimates a 97% probability that the phenomenon will persist until the beginning of the northern spring of 2027 (southern fall).

What does El Niño bring?

Currently, the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region — a key area of the equatorial Pacific for measuring the intensity of the phenomenon — is 34.16 °F above average. According to the report, the warming of subsurface waters and the observed changes in wind patterns and atmospheric pressure confirm that the ocean-atmosphere system continues to intensify.

El Niño is characterized by the anomalous warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which alters atmospheric circulation patterns and modifies climate behavior in different regions of the world.

Among its most common effects are drier conditions in Australia, wetter seasons in the southern United States and East Africa, as well as a rise in global average temperatures.