Global demographic time bomb: People 65 and older outnumber those under 5 for the first time

The perfect storm threatening humanity is gaining momentum and taking shape. For the first time in history, people over 65 outnumber children under 5. This tipping point has arrived sooner than experts expected and poses a far greater danger to society than a mere statistical footnote.

The fact is, this is a demographic time bomb that is blowing the welfare state of advanced societies to smithereens, rendering it completely unsustainable due to a lack of people to support it at the grassroots level. Until now, immigration from developing countries has been filling the gap in many first-world countries. However, according to the latest data, this solution is no longer feasible either.

We're living longer, and fewer children are being born

This situation has arisen through two distinct paths: one positive and the other dramatic. The positive one is the increase in life expectancy in recent years, thanks to "mprovements in health services, educational status, and economic development."

The negative factor that has led to this situation is the plummeting birth rate, especially in developed countries, which experts refer to as demographic winter or demographic suicide.

The "fertility trap"

A report by the United Nations Population Division titled "An Aging World: 2025" claims that "these demographic changes create a seemingly inescapable 'fertility trap'—a growing share of older people in a population destined to continually shrink (Lutz, Skirbekk, and Testa, 2006). Moreover, sustained low fertility below the 'replacement' level (about two births per couple) accelerates the process by eventually causing the number of parents to decline each year."

According to the census, those aged 65 and older already account for 10.5% of the total population. In fact, "There are now 77 countries in which 14 percent or more of the population is at older ages." By continent, Europe is by far the oldest.

Europe: More of an "Old Continent" than ever

In 2025, 21% of Europe's population was 65 or older. At the other end of the spectrum is Africa, where barely 4% of its inhabitants fall into that age group. Oceania has the second-highest percentage of older adults, at 13.6%, followed closely by the Americas, at 13.5%, In Asia, older adults account for 10.5% of the total population.

According to Census projections, these figures will worsen, as the aging of the population is accelerating at an unprecedented rate, which has caused forecasts from a few years ago to be surpassed. Currently, the average age in Europe is 44.1 years; this is projected to rise to 47.6 by 2040 and to 49 by 2060.

Second in this category is the Americas, with an average age of 35, which is forecast rise to 39.3 by 2040 and 43.9 by 2060. Next is Asia, at 33.8, which is projected to rise to 38.6 by 2040 and to 43.8 by 2060. Africa remains the youngest continent, with an average age of 20.4 years, which is expected to rise to 23.4 by 2040 and to 27.7 by 2060.