El Niño gaining strength: NOAA claims 75% chance it is most intense since 1950, with droughts, floods and extreme heat on the horizon

The El Niño phenomenon is strengthening in the tropical Pacific and could reach exceptional intensity over the coming months, according to the latest forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In its most recent update, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicated that there is a greater than 90% probability of a "very strong" event occurring during the northern fall and winter of 2026–2027. The agency also raised the probability that the phenomenon will reach historic intensity between October and December from 69% to 75%, exceeding any episode recorded since 1950 using the current methodology.

Pacific confirms warming

NOAA has an El Niño watch in effect. Sea surface temperatures are above average in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and atmospheric patterns are consistent with the phenomenon strengthening.

According to the September 10 bulletin, anomalies reached 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit in Niño 3.4, the central band of the equatorial Pacific that NOAA uses to declare an El Niño. In Niño 3, further east, they were 4.5 F. In Niño 1+2, off the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru, they reached 6.1 F. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, from that central zone toward the Americas, sea surface anomalies exceeded 5.4 F.

NOAA defines a historic event for October–December when the quarterly average of the Relative Oceanic El Niño Index (RONI) reaches at least 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit. That threshold would exceed the intensity of previous episodes recorded since 1950 using that metric.

The WMO Forecast

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also warned of an exceptional development. According to its Sept. 3 update, El Niño is firmly established and is likely to intensify to a very strong category by the end of 2026. The organization estimates a probability of nearly 100% that the phenomenon will continue through February 2027.

The WMO emphasizes that El Niño disrupts normal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale. Its specific effects will depend on the region and the time of year, but may include droughts, torrential rains, floods, wildfires and episodes of extreme heat.

Possible effects in the Americas

In the United States, El Niño typically brings wetter winters to the southern part of the country and to California, although it can also lead to milder temperatures in the Northwest and in western Canada. The ultimate impact will depend on how the phenomenon evolves and on other atmospheric factors.

According to the historical pattern summarized by Carbon Brief and reported in WMO bulletins, the phenomenon can have different consequences depending on the location. In parts of South America—northern Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela—there is typically a higher risk of drought, while southern Brazil, Uruguay, central Chile and northern Argentina may be exposed to heavier rainfall. These patterns do not repeat identically in every occurrence.

Pacific warming can also influence tropical activity. El Niño typically increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which hinders hurricane formation, though it does not eliminate the possibility of intense storms.

Alert in Peru: Coastal El Niño threatens agriculture sector

In Peru, the risk is not limited to the Central Pacific El Niño. The official ENFEN committee raised the probability of an exceptionally intense coastal El Niño between September 2026 and January 2027 to 62%, with the highest sea surface temperatures off the northern and central coasts around November and December.

This scenario puts pressure on the 2026–2027 agricultural season. According to as reported by RPP, Conveagro, the leading agricultural trade association, estimates that between 20% and 30% of cultivated land—about 5.4 million acres—could be affected, with losses exceeding $3 billion. The association has spoken of a drop in food production of between 40% and 50%, particularly in potatoes, rice, legumes and fruit. These are industry figures, not an official estimate.

Risks for Asia and Australia

In Australia, Indonesia and various parts of Southeast Asia, El Niño is typically associated with lower rainfall and a higher risk of drought and wildfires. India may experience disruptions to the monsoon, while some areas of China and Japan may see higher temperatures during part of the event.

The pattern may also alter the paths of typhoons in the western Pacific. Some storms may form further east and travel over warm waters for longer periods, potentially reaching greater intensity before making landfall.

Implications for Africa

In southern Africa, the WMO links El Niño to below-normal rainfall during the wet season from December through February. This increases the risk of drought in countries that rely on rain-fed maize and may prolong pressure on crops and water reserves through 2027.

In the Horn of Africa and East Africa, the pattern is typically reversed during the short rains from October to December. There, the phenomenon leads to heavier rainfall and flooding, while the northern part of the region may have experienced drier conditions during the June–September season.