Extreme contrast: Dangerous heat in Southern Plains, heavy rain and flood risk in Midwest next week
The NWS forecasts that an upper-level ridge will move westward, driving temperatures above average in the South and West, while a stationary front will bring multiple rounds of storms further north.
People seek shelter from the sun
Next week, the weather will present a sharp contrast, with dangerous heat intensifying in the Southern Plains, while the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued warnings of heavy rain and flood risks in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region.
A upper-level ridge, currently centered over the Southeast, will shift toward the Southern Plains and westward. This pattern will contribute to dangerous heat early and midweek. At the same time, a system moving across the central United States will cause a front to stall over the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, bringing repeated rain and thunderstorms that could lead to flooding.
According to NWS estimates, this will lead to two dangerous scenarios to watch for in the coming days:
- Dangerous heat with temperatures reaching 100 to 110 F from Monday through Wednesday in parts of the Central and Southern Plains, as well as in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
- A threat of heavy rain lasting several days, beginning Monday in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region, with the potential for excessive rainfall and flash floods. The risk will shift toward the Central Plains and the middle and upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather is also possible along this frontal zone.
Monsoon-like humidity in Arizona, New Mexico and surrounding areas
In addition, the NWS reports that monsoon moisture will return early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in Arizona, New Mexico and surrounding areas. The risk of localized flash floods remains due to the interaction of thunderstorms with the terrain.
On the West Coast, above-normal temperatures are expected as the ridge strengthens. The Pacific Northwest should remain relatively dry, while the Southwest and the Rockies will see more active monsoon storms.
Heat in the East
However, in the Upper Midwest and the Northeast, conditions will be mild to warm at the start of the week. Later on, a trough over eastern Canada could bring cooler, more fall-like air. The chance of rain will increase as fronts pass through.
In the Southeast and Florida, the heat and humidity typical of late summer will persist. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain common, especially in The Sunshine State and along the Gulf Coast.
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