2026 hurricane season: Moderate forecast
Experts anticipate slightly below normal activity.
Hurricane southeast of Jamaica (File image).
The Atlantic hurricane season is about to begin, June 1 to Nov. 30, and early forecasts point to moderate activity, with between six and nine hurricanes expected in the basin.
Two leading meteorological authorities agree on their estimates. Researchers at North Carolina State University project six to nine hurricanes within a total of 12 to 15 named storms, of which two to three could reach high intensity.
Colorado State University forecasts six hurricanes out of a total of 13 named storms, including two major storms.
The role of El Niño in the season
According to specialists, one of the key factors for this year will be the evolution of the El Niño phenomenon.
Experts anticipate that the current weak La Niña conditions could transform into a moderate or strong El Niño episode during the peak of the season, which usually reduces cyclonic activity in the Atlantic.
Areas under watch: Gulf and Caribbean
Dr. Lian Xie of North Carolina State University estimates that two to five named storms could form in the Gulf of Mexico, of which one or two would become hurricanes.
In addition, the Caribbean Sea is forecast to generate between one and two hurricanes, with at least one reaching major status.
Xie's analysis is based on more than a century of historical data on the Atlantic, weather patterns and sea surface temperatures.
A look at the 2025 season
Last season was unusual. No landfalling hurricanes were recorded in 2025, something that had not occurred since 2015.
Still, systems like Erin caused significant coastal damage, while tropical storm Chantal was the only one to directly impact territory, affecting the Carolinas.
In total, 13 named storms were recorded, including five hurricanes, four of which were major.
How hurricanes are classified
- Category 1: 119-153 km/h.
- Category 2: 154-177 km/h.
- Category 3: 178-208 km/h.
- Category 4: 209-251 km/h.
- Category 5: over 252 km/h.
List of names for 2026
The National Hurricane Center has already released the list of names to be used this year, following the World Meteorological Organization's rotating system.
They include: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
These names are reused every six years, except in cases where they are retired due to their association with particularly destructive storms.
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