Trump and Catholics: tensions with the Church put a key midterm election vote at risk

How is the relationship between Donald Trump and Catholics? Ahead of the midterm elections, the president hopes to retain the Republican majority in both houses of Congress. To do so, he will need to sustain, advance or at least not lose many members of the coalition that brought him back to the White House. However, his recent run-ins with the Catholic Church threaten to demotivate and even anger a key constituency that backed him in 2024: Catholics.

Recently, the president criticized the pope Leo XI for his stance on immigration and the Iran war, claiming he is doing "damage" to the Catholic Church. Shortly afterward, he posted on Truth Social an image made with artificial intelligence in which some interpreted as the president placing himself in the role of Jesus Christ. Trump later deleted the post and argued that he thought the image showed him as a doctor.

Both the comments against the pope and the Truth Social image provoked a negative reaction from archbishops, priests and many Catholics across the country. One of the most resounding criticisms came from the bishop of Winona-Rochester, Robert Barron, one of the most influential Catholic voices in the country and also a member of Trump's Religious Liberty Commission.

"The statements made by President Trump on Truth Social regarding the Pope were entirely inappropriate and disrespectful. They don’t contribute at all to a constructive conversation," he wrote on his X account.

Among the latter group of critics were also two conservative and media figures close to Trump: activist Riley Gaines and MAGA influencer Brilyn Hollyhand.

"This is gross blasphemy. Faith is not a prop. You don't need to portray yourself as a savior when your record should speak for itself. The same God who saved Trump's life from that bullet sent His son Jesus to die for our sins. He died for Trump just as much as for you and I," the 19-year-old expressed on social media about Trump's deleted post on Truth Social.

"Why? Seriously, I cannot understand why he'd post this. Is he looking for a response? Does he actually think this? Either way, two things are true. 1) a little humility would serve him well 2) God shall not be mocked," Gaines added.

In this context, the relationship between Trump and Catholics appears as one of the most sensitive variables in the face of the midterm elections. Despite the care taken to anger them in recent days, the president will have to prevent one-off anger from translating into concrete losses at the ballot box.

The importance of the Catholic vote for Trump

These episodes threaten to wear down Trump's relationship with the Catholic community, which he will need in a few months if he hopes to retain Congress in November.

Among Catholics, the Republican won in two of the three presidential elections in which he ran. According to an analysis by Pew Research Center, he won 52% of the Catholic vote in 2016, beating Hillary Clinton by eight percentage points. In 2020, Joe Biden won the Catholic vote by one percentage point. The Democrat became the first Catholic president since John F. Kennedy. Four years later, Catholics strongly backed Trump. The Republican won 55% of the vote among this group, twelve points ahead of Kamala Harris.

In addition, according to an article published in The Catholic Thing written by George J. Marlin, author of the book 'American Catholic Voter: Two Hundred Years Of Political Impact', 66% of Catholics who attend Mass at least once a week voted for Trump in 2024.

In the article, Marlin also explained the relationship between the Catholic vote and the Hispanic vote, as well as the weight both played in Trump's last win.

"The Hispanic population (60 percent Catholic) has been growing by leaps and bounds. In 1970, there were 8.9 million Hispanics living in the United States; in 2022, that number hit 63.7 million – 19 percent of all Americans. As for eligible Hispanic voters, in 1988 they totaled 7.7 million. Now it’s 36.2 million. That number is expected to grow annually because 29 percent of Hispanics are currently under eighteen. Hispanic voters are changing the nation’s political landscape. And that development was evident in this year’s presidential election," he wrote.

With the precedent of the swing Catholic vote in the last election, this is a large enough group to change the outcome of elections in key seats and states.

One red flag for Trump is a poll released by Pew Research Center, which found thatthe president's image among Catholics had been falling even before the attack on the pope. According to its findings, Trump's approval among white Catholics fell from 59% in February 2025 to 52% in January 2026. In turn, among Hispanic Catholics it dropped from 31% to 23%.

Changing trend: increase in Catholic converts in the U.S.

In recent years, statistics on new Catholics reflected a steady decline, with a progressive decrease since 2000. This discouraging trend for the Church began to change in 2022, when, according to CBS News, "dioceses across the country have reported a change in that trend, with increasing numbers of Americans -particularly millennials and Generation Z - opting to join the Catholic Church." As an illustration, this past Easter celebration, "some archdioceses recorded their highest number of new Catholics in two decades."

According to The New York Times, the Archdioceses of Detroit, Galveston-Houston and Des Moines received very high numbers of new Catholics on Easter. For example, in Des Moines, the number represented a 51% increase over 2025.

In addition, the trend of Catholic converts is favorable for conservatives. Currently, according to statistics from Pew Research Center, 92% of Catholics in the United States are born-again Catholics, while the remaining 8% are Catholic converts.

"Politically, converts are somewhat more Republican than cradle Catholics and are about as likely to describe themselves as conservatives, ideologically.," the Washington, D.C.-based research center explained.

"When asked why they became Catholic, the most common response offered by converts is because of a spouse, or to get married in the church. Others say becoming Catholic aligned with their values or that Catholicism made sense to them," they added.

One of them is vice president, JD Vance, who will tell the story of his conversion in a upcoming book titled 'Communion'.